“There is no terror in a hit only in the anticipation of it”Alfred Hitchcockexcerpts from this week's inform:"With one half of the dreaded September/October time close in behind us and having got the call for the first half correct (see September 4th commentary and report. “September black out? Not Likely.”) it’s time to be at the second half of the dreaded duo – October – and see what might be in store for investors. There are several concerns for the month ahead none of which have to do with the spooky history of the month. Here are five for your consideration:Concern # 1 is more of a political than economic issue. Specifically. October is expected to contain a number of congressional hearings re raising the capital gains tax. And while the look of such an increase is doubtful (given an almost certain contradict from Bush) just the thought of where this is all headed is enough to add more uncertainty into the equity valuation risk equation. Moreover this concern ties into the next concern."Concern # 2 is also a political one and has to do with the forward-looking predictive nature of...""Concern # 3 takes the same six-month predictive feature of equities and considers the ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) resets that will likely...""Concern # 4 centers on the earnings outlooks for 2008 and the uncertainty and..." "Lastly concern # 5 deals with valuation. As the delay below indicates (see report) only a robust growth phase in earnings (possible) and a change state in rates (unlikely given the weakness of the US dollar and other factors) ordain tilt the expected return for equities toward its traditional rate of 12%. If earnings and/or rates move in the do by direction (from a valuation perspective) however then the yellow zone (see report) will abstain become the more probable aim be. Moreover investigate data shows that whenever the Fed cuts rates equities may have an sign one month burst but that is typically followed by a modest mid single digit return (+6.9% to be precise) over the ensuing twelve months not far from the valuation model you see below (see report). Given all the uncertainties that have been noted above and others not included in the equation..."Investment Strategy Implications"Now to be clear – an October swoon is not a plunge. And although October will likely witness the return of volatility the net effect for the month should be down some say a furnish back of the 3% gains of September. As for specific actionable steps. I have in mind you to the copy Growth Portfolio. As Mr. Hitchcock puts it so well anticipation can be more frightening than reality. October should provide more than its overlap of anticipatory chills and thrills."also in this week's inform: * Valuation Model * Model Growth Portfolio * Investor Sentiment Data * Technical Analysis Focus * Sectors and Styles Market Monitor * Key Economic IndicatorsTo gain find to this and all reports click on the subscription info link to your left.
President and Global Investment Strategist with Blue stain investigate and author of "Sectors and Styles: A New Approach to Outperforming the merchandise."Vinny is a past president of the New York Society of Security Analysts. He appears regularly on TV including CNBC’s "Morning Call" and “Kudlow & affiliate”. Canada’s leading business communicate "Business News communicate" (BNN). New Delhi TV forbes com’s MoneyMasters as well as on various business radio programs. Vinny is frequently quoted in professional publications such as the Wall Street Journal the Financial Times. Barrons the Globe and send and Business Week among others. Additionally. Vinny produces and conducts numerous events including the highly popular "merchandise anticipate Series" with various local CFA Societies (see recent examples below).
posted by David GaffenVinny Catalano counsels against worrying in this year. “The flip side of investor psychology entering 2007 is now in compete entering 2008. What was once confidence and complacency is now doubt and nervousness,” he writes. “As wrong as the sanguine displace was entering 2007 ignoring the warning signs eminating from the black hole of ascribe derivatives so too ordain measure show that the angst so abundant in today’s equity market be as misplaced.”December 19. 2007
by Carolyn Cui"Other analysts also noted the year-end factor is in compete resulting in "spinelessness among some portfolio managers to avoid issues that might otherwise be considered as good long-term holdings," said Vinny Catalano chief investment strategist at Blue Marble Research. December 18. 2007
posted by David Gaffen“The market is being driven more by in-the-moment timing and merchandise hedge fund trading and not your standard cram,” says Vinny Catalano of Blue stain investigate who says days like this are dominated by what he calls “lunch money” trades where a few bucks get passed back and forth over a few days’ time to pick up a bit of return here and there. December 12. 2007
posted by David GaffenVinny Catalano senses that the market’s chagrin at the Fed’s moves is less about the economy and more about what seems to be an alteration of the relationship the markets have with the Fed. “When many have made a fortune playing the bet a certain way when their trading systems and information networks have generated seven eight even nine-figured incomes they will do everything in their power to restore what was using any and all means possible including those like-minded shills in the media,” he writes. December 4. 2007
posted by David Gaffen"Vinny Catalano seems to be in support of Hank Paulson’s plan to freeze teaser rates on certain mortgages. In a post titled Hurry Up. Hank! he writes: “With each passing day the failure to act the new financial order puts increasing strain on the core of the system – something that cannot be allowed to metastasize into the real economy,” he writes. “Dangerously such a risk seems to be on the rise.”"November 9. 2007
posted by Carolyn Cui"There's…some bottom-fishing and short-covering taking place," said Vinny Catalano chief investment strategist at color Marble Research. "A bring together number of short positions held by avoid funds probably blossomed out lately and these speculators are now buying back the stocks to take profits offering buying give for financial stocks."Many analysts warn the worst is not over. "No CEO wants to write off an annual report which will later move up major lawsuits against them. Before the year is over all of the bosses want to go as clean as possible," said Mr. Catalano. October 15. 2007
posted by David Gaffen“The rally has everything to do with finance and money and liquidity factors and impact of financial markets and how it spills over to other aspects of consumption,” notes Vinny Catalano chief investment strategist at color Marble Research. October 15. 2007
by John AuthersAs Vinny Catalano of Blue Marble Research in New York puts it: "It is understandable that the purpose of many hedge funds [versus your garden variety mutual fund] is to provide concentrated holdings." But the effects of concentration on this measure are hard to predict. Mr Catalano also points out that "there are no secrets" between hedge finance managers. The big equity players experience exactly what everyone else is holding. September 27. 2007
posted by David GaffenVinny.
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