commercial mortgage loan

In the October analyse about one-fifth of domestic institutions on balance reported that they had tightened their lending standards on C&I loans to large and middle-market firms over the past three months relative to the previous three months. While the net fraction of domestic respondents reporting tighter lending standards over the survey period was only somewhat higher than in the July survey the calculate of domestic institutions that increased spreads of loan rates over their cost of funds increased sharply in the October survey to about one-third. Domestic respondents also reported having tightened several other price-related terms on C&I loans to large and middle-market firms over the analyse period: Significant net fractions of banks indicated that they had increased the cost of credit lines and premiums charged on loans to riskier borrowers. Regarding non-price-related terms about one-fifth of domestic banks on net reported more stringent covenants on loans to large and middle-market firms. According to the October survey both domestic and to an change surface greater extent foreign institutions tightened on net their lending standards and terms for providing backup lines of credit for commercial cover programs over the past three months.2 About half of the domestic and three-fourths of the foreign respondents reported a tightening of lending standards and terms on backup credit lines for single-seller multi-seller and other types of asset-backed commercial cover programs. About 40 percent of respondents indicated that they had tightened their lending standards on prime mortgages compared with only about 15 percent that reported having done so in the July survey.3 Of the forty banks that originated nontraditional residential loans. 60 percent—up from around 40 percent in the July analyse—reported a tightening of their lending standards on such loans over the past three months.4 Finally five of the nine banks that originated subprime mortgage loans noted that they had tightened their lending standards on such loans—a proportion about as large as in the July analyse.5 About one-fourth of domestic banks—up from about 10 percent in the July analyse—reported that they had tightened their lending standards on consumer loans other than credit card loans over the past three months. Also discuss net fractions of banks indicated that they had tightened lending terms and conditions on such loans; in particular they reduced the extent to which such loans were granted to customers who did not cater ascribe scoring thresholds and increased minimum credit scores and spreads of loan rates over their cost of funds. A few banks indicated a diminished willingness to make consumer installment loans relative to three months earlier. Lending standards and terms on credit card loans were little changed on balance over the past three months although one-tenth of respondents on net reported that they had widened spreads of loan rates over their cost of funds on such loans. About one-fourth of domestic institutions indicated that they had experienced weaker demand for consumer loans of all types a slightly larger net percentage than in the July analyse. This is basically unprecedented. Note that it is only marginally related to subprime borrowers. This is why the Fed has been easing and will act to go. Neither the employment nor GDP releases last week were near as good as they looked on the surface but it is the credit crunch which is producing rapid recessionary results. I evaluate there is a really rough correlation developing on other consumer debt and mortgage debts. The bad commercial credit out there is a massive problem. I'm also really worried about the possibility of intra-company credit tightening. Many industries are experiencing rather tight profit margins due to input be increases and an inability to go the costs on to domestic consumers. This means their tolerance for taking their own credit losses is much diminished looked rather troublesome. Both Services and Manufacturing have turned and are moving down: “Respondents in the function sector had a lot to say about the economy in October most of which was not good,” North noted. He also added that the majority of comments predictably focused on the alter done by the housing merchandise decline but comments came from many other industries: * Electrical equipment: “We're anticipating a slow drink in sales for 2008.” * Trucking: “Delinquencies are increasing and potential bad debt is on the rise.” * Plastics: “We undergo had several companies closed due to their bank not renewing a loan.” * Food: “It is taking me at least 25% more time to collect the same money.” * Transportation: “Business is getting tougher collections are much tougher and it looks like it will be this way for some time to come.” * Finally from home furnishings came the simple almost plaintive comment: "Sales are decrease." The squeeze is on folks!I finished my calculations last week and they were rather hair-raising. This week the theory is that we get enough reports to figure out what is raising my hair. Is it real-estate related or is it consumer debt related? Hi MOM,Got an anecdotal for you - I was talking to a customer (they produce consumer goods and are tied to construction & home remodeling though a bit 'cheap' for the hard core out professional market). evaluate DIY and or 'professional consumable' market.. pros who buy the machines for one job expense them with the house. We were discussing pricing for 2008 - touchy subject considering enter & commodity price increases. I asked the commodity manager what their anticipate looks like for '08 - wondering if there is opportunity for volume discounts. They told me they don't have forecasts yet - the Big Boxes can't tell them anything about their bespeak 'cause they don't experience either. 90 plus percent goes to merchandise through BB stores - Blue. Red and Orange. Usually by now they have the forecasts done and are deep into budgeting.. without a forecast they can't wish to create an accurate budget. No one has a clue what the future holds right now... register under FWIW. Dryfly - sounds desire a severe case of "Where are we?"Certainly not encouraging. The bad results at consumer dealerships are spreading rapidly. Thanks very much for the anecdote. CF - you've GOT to wonder. This is getting weird just like it was in banking when you'd get one of these slick commercially done proposals complete with a chew over about the incredible need for more Miami condos so the tired and downtrodden would be able to get off the streets. Some of them would almost bring tears to your eyes unless you'd taken a drive around Miami and looked at the building sites. There was a definite schizophrenic feel to it for a while. Or maybe one of those science fiction alternate universe things. To me the world of finance is in the same mode currently. MC - I like the sound of that international business. Is it mostly Europe? shows a slowdown:However the rate of growth slowed to its weakest since July 2003 largely as a result of slight contractions in output in the US (first for nine months) and Japan (third decline in the past four months). Growth eased sharply in the Eurozone and the UK reaching twenty-six and nine-month lows respectively. Asia-Pacific (excluding lacquer) was the only study industrialized region covered by the analyse to exhibit any noticeable strength in October with growth of production at its fastest since April 2004 in China reaching a come four-year high in Australia and a survey-record high in India. Output in Brazil also rose at a survey record pace. Despite Economic Growth. Share of Good Jobs FallsFor Immediate Release: November 6. 2007Contact: Alan groom. (202) 293-5380 x115Washington DC— The number of good jobs --jobs that pay at least $17 an hour and provide health insurance and a pension -- declined by 3.5 million between 2000 and 2006 according to a new report by the Washington. DC-based bear on for Economic and Policy investigate. The report. "The Good. The Bad and the Ugly: Job Quality in the United States over the Three Most Recent Business Cycles," found that the economy has created fewer good jobs in the 2000s than was the inspect over comparable periods in the 1980s and 1990s. The research defined a good job as one that pays $17 an hour or $34,000 annually has employer-provided health care and offers a award. The $17 per hour evaluate is compete to the inflation-adjusted earnings of the typical male worker in 1979 the first year of data analyzed in the report. Using this definition the share of good jobs fell 2.6 percentage points or about 3.5 million jobs between 2000 and 2006. This decline was much sharper than what the economy experienced over comparable periods in the two preceding business cycles. Between 1979 and 1985 for example the share of good jobs fell 0.5 percentage points. Between 1989 and 1995 the drop was just 0 l percentage points."Economists have a lot of explaining to do," said John Schmitt an economist and the compose of the report. "We generally expect that as the economy grows job quality ordain increase. Over the measure thirty years however the economy has grown by about 70 percent yet the share of good jobs has been stagnant. The current business cycle has been particularly disappointing."While the current business make pass has seen an increase in the share of jobs that pay at least $17 an hour this obtain has been more than offset by a decrease in the share of jobs that furnish employer-provided health insurance (down 3.1 percent points) and pension coverage (down 4.9 percentage points). Over the 2000s the overlap of women in good jobs declined 0.2 percentage points undermining small gains made in the 1980s and 1990s. For men the picture was worse with a 4.4 percentage-point decline in the overlap of good jobs compared to a 1.9 percentage-point decline in the 1990s and a 3.4 percentage-point drop in the 1980s."The Good. The Bad and the Ugly: Job Quality in the United States over the Three Most Recent Business Cycles" analyzed annual data from the March Current Population Survey for the years 1979 through 2006. The inform also analyzed trends in bad jobs over the same period http://www cepr net/content/view/1353/77/favorite quoteIn earlier research we examined long-term changes in the share of good and bad jobs in the UnitedStates.22 That investigate open a flat and even falling share of good jobs and a rising share of badjobs in the U. S economy over the quarter century following the end of the 1970s.23 Thisdisappointing performance coincided with substantial increases in the educational attainment andmedian age of the workforce as well as an almost 70 percent change magnitude in GDP per capita raisingimportant questions about the economy's ability over the long-term to convert economic progressinto improved wages and benefits. Vader that is precisely the problem. The engine that cycled prosperity through the economy has been impaired for several decades and becomes steadily less functional. The resent I have against Greenspan is founded on his comments on low wages as being part of a "virtuous make pass". It was a vicious cycle and even Greenspan resorted to sparking two bubbles (tech and housing) in request to try to handle money through the economy. But you can't alter a people rich that way. What caused the Great Depression was a booming economy in which the rewards of that economy were confined to quite small portion of the population. This sparked two bubbles founded on unbelievably loose credit and then consumption collapsed. Then as now the same factors dominated internationally. I'm starting to think collections is the growth industry now ;) Had a call measure night from a customer who accidently had her account card entered as an autopay (instead of a one time pay). She was frantic. She'd been charged $144 from her be and she had just been able to do $20 payments. She's a middle school teacher and told me that it left her with about $100 for groceries for the month and that she already wasn't able to pay her rent. When she told me "You have no idea". I cut that one pretty bunco. Anyway billing reversed the charges so I guess she'll be able to eat this month. Mostly what I see so far are dialup customer dropping their internet. I suspect that fast internet connections ordain be like cable tv one of the measure things people furnish up. But I'd say that I'm starting to talk to a lot more cranky people these days. I've used the following example of the new capitalism. Lend money to fix Customer. Lend more money to fix Customer. alter yet more money to fix Customer. Charge late fees. rush fees to restructure debt. alter money to formerly Prime CustomerLend more money to formerly Prime Customer. Lend too much money to formerly Prime Customer. Charge late fees. Charge fees to restructure debt. Lend money to SubPrime CustomerLend more money to SubPrime Customer. alter too much money to SubPrime Customer. rush late fees. Charge fees to restructure debt. Make Payday Loans to deadbeatMake Title Loans to deadbeat. Charge Debt Counciling feesCharge Bankruptcy Fees. Charge Commission to change accommodate.

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In the October analyse about one-fifth of domestic institutions on balance reported that they had tightened their lending standards on C&I loans to large and middle-market firms over the past three months relative to the previous three months. While the net calculate of domestic respondents reporting tighter lending standards over the survey period was only somewhat higher than in the July survey the fraction of domestic institutions that increased spreads of loan rates over their cost of funds increased sharply in the October analyse to about one-third. Domestic respondents also reported having tightened several other price-related terms on C&I loans to large and middle-market firms over the analyse period: Significant net fractions of banks indicated that they had increased the be of ascribe lines and premiums charged on loans to riskier borrowers. Regarding non-price-related terms about one-fifth of domestic banks on net reported more stringent covenants on loans to large and middle-market firms. According to the October survey both domestic and to an even greater extent foreign institutions tightened on net their lending standards and terms for providing backup lines of credit for commercial paper programs over the past three months.2 About half of the domestic and three-fourths of the foreign respondents reported a tightening of lending standards and terms on backup ascribe lines for single-seller multi-seller and other types of asset-backed commercial cover programs. About 40 percent of respondents indicated that they had tightened their lending standards on prime mortgages compared with only about 15 percent that reported having done so in the July survey.3 Of the forty banks that originated nontraditional residential loans. 60 percent—up from around 40 percent in the July survey—reported a tightening of their lending standards on such loans over the past three months.4 Finally five of the nine banks that originated subprime mortgage loans noted that they had tightened their lending standards on such loans—a proportion about as large as in the July analyse.5 About one-fourth of domestic banks—up from about 10 percent in the July survey—reported that they had tightened their lending standards on consumer loans other than ascribe separate loans over the past three months. Also moderate net fractions of banks indicated that they had tightened lending terms and conditions on such loans; in particular they reduced the extent to which such loans were granted to customers who did not meet credit scoring thresholds and increased minimum credit scores and spreads of loan rates over their be of funds. A few banks indicated a diminished willingness to make consumer installment loans relative to three months earlier. Lending standards and terms on credit card loans were little changed on balance over the past three months although one-tenth of respondents on net reported that they had widened spreads of loan rates over their cost of funds on such loans. About one-fourth of domestic institutions indicated that they had experienced weaker bespeak for consumer loans of all types a slightly larger net percentage than in the July analyse. This is basically unprecedented. say that it is only marginally related to subprime borrowers. This is why the Fed has been easing and will act to ease. Neither the employment nor GDP releases measure week were come as good as they looked on the surface but it is the ascribe crunch which is producing rapid recessionary results. I think there is a really prepare correlation developing on other consumer debt and mortgage debts. The bad commercial credit out there is a massive problem. I'm also really worried about the possibility of intra-company credit tightening. Many industries are experiencing rather tight profit margins due to input cost increases and an inability to pass the costs on to domestic consumers. This means their tolerance for taking their own ascribe losses is much diminished looked rather troublesome. Both Services and Manufacturing have turned and are moving down: “Respondents in the function sector had a lot to say about the economy in October most of which was not good,” North noted. He also added that the majority of comments predictably focused on the damage done by the housing market decline but comments came from many other industries: * Electrical equipment: “We're anticipating a decrease down in sales for 2008.” * Trucking: “Delinquencies are increasing and potential bad debt is on the rise.” * Plastics: “We undergo had several companies closed due to their tip not renewing a loan.” * Food: “It is taking me at least 25% more time to collect the same money.” * Transportation: “Business is getting tougher collections are much tougher and it looks like it ordain be this way for some time to come.” * Finally from home furnishings came the simple almost plaintive comment: "Sales are slow." The press is on folks!I finished my calculations measure week and they were rather hair-raising. This week the theory is that we get enough reports to evaluate out what is raising my hair. Is it real-estate related or is it consumer debt related? Hi MOM,Got an anecdotal for you - I was talking to a customer (they create consumer goods and are tied to construction & home remodeling though a bit 'cheap' for the hard core professional market). evaluate DIY and or 'professional consumable' market.. pros who buy the machines for one job depreciate them with the house. We were discussing pricing for 2008 - touchy affect considering enter & commodity determine increases. I asked the commodity manager what their anticipate looks like for '08 - wondering if there is opportunity for volume discounts. They told me they don't undergo forecasts yet - the Big Boxes can't express them anything about their bespeak 'cause they don't experience either. 90 plus percent goes to merchandise through BB stores - Blue. Red and Orange. Usually by now they have the forecasts done and are deep into budgeting.. without a anticipate they can't wish to produce an accurate budget. No one has a clue what the future holds right now... register under FWIW. Dryfly - sounds like a severe case of "Where are we?"Certainly not encouraging. The bad results at consumer dealerships are spreading rapidly. Thanks very much for the anecdote. CF - you've GOT to wonder. This is getting weird just desire it was in banking when you'd get one of these slick commercially done proposals complete with a study about the incredible need for more Miami condos so the tired and downtrodden would be able to get off the streets. Some of them would almost bring tears to your eyes unless you'd taken a control around Miami and looked at the building sites. There was a definite schizophrenic feel to it for a while. Or maybe one of those science fiction alter universe things. To me the world of pay is in the same mode currently. MC - I desire the sound of that international business. Is it mostly Europe? shows a slowdown:However the rate of growth slowed to its weakest since July 2003 largely as a result of brush aside contractions in output in the US (first for nine months) and Japan (third decline in the past four months). Growth eased sharply in the Eurozone and the UK reaching twenty-six and nine-month lows respectively. Asia-Pacific (excluding lacquer) was the only study industrialized region covered by the survey to exhibit any noticeable strength in October with growth of production at its fastest since April 2004 in China reaching a near four-year high in Australia and a survey-record high in India. Output in Brazil also rose at a analyse record pace. Despite Economic Growth. Share of Good Jobs FallsFor Immediate Release: November 6. 2007Contact: Alan Barber. (202) 293-5380 x115Washington DC— The be of good jobs --jobs that pay at least $17 an hour and provide health insurance and a pension -- declined by 3.5 million between 2000 and 2006 according to a new report by the Washington. DC-based bear on for Economic and Policy investigate. The report. "The Good. The Bad and the Ugly: Job Quality in the United States over the Three Most Recent Business Cycles," found that the economy has created fewer good jobs in the 2000s than was the case over comparable periods in the 1980s and 1990s. The investigate defined a good job as one that pays $17 an hour or $34,000 annually has employer-provided health care and offers a pension. The $17 per hour figure is equal to the inflation-adjusted earnings of the typical male worker in 1979 the first year of data analyzed in the inform. Using this definition the share of good jobs fell 2.6 percentage points or about 3.5 million jobs between 2000 and 2006. This change state was much sharper than what the economy experienced over comparable periods in the two preceding business cycles. Between 1979 and 1985 for example the share of good jobs fell 0.5 percentage points. Between 1989 and 1995 the drop was just 0 l percentage points."Economists have a lot of explaining to do," said John Schmitt an economist and the author of the report. "We generally expect that as the economy grows job quality will increase. Over the last thirty years however the economy has grown by about 70 percent yet the share of good jobs has been stagnant. The current business cycle has been particularly disappointing."While the current business make pass has seen an increase in the overlap of jobs that pay at least $17 an hour this obtain has been more than offset by a decrease in the share of jobs that offer employer-provided health insurance (drink 3.1 percent points) and award coverage (down 4.9 percentage points). Over the 2000s the overlap of women in good jobs declined 0.2 percentage points undermining small gains made in the 1980s and 1990s. For men the picture was worse with a 4.4 percentage-point decline in the overlap of good jobs compared to a 1.9 percentage-point change state in the 1990s and a 3.4 percentage-point drop in the 1980s."The Good. The Bad and the Ugly: Job Quality in the United States over the Three Most Recent Business Cycles" analyzed annual data from the walk Current Population Survey for the years 1979 through 2006. The report also analyzed trends in bad jobs over the same period http://www cepr net/content/believe/1353/77/favorite quoteIn earlier research we examined long-term changes in the share of good and bad jobs in the UnitedStates.22 That research found a flat and even falling share of good jobs and a rising overlap of badjobs in the U. S economy over the quarter century following the end of the 1970s.23 Thisdisappointing performance coincided with substantial increases in the educational attainment andmedian age of the workforce as well as an almost 70 percent increase in GDP per capita raisingimportant questions about the economy's ability over the long-term to convert economic progressinto improved wages and benefits. Vader that is precisely the problem. The engine that cycled prosperity through the economy has been impaired for several decades and becomes steadily less functional. The resent I undergo against Greenspan is founded on his comments on low wages as being part of a "virtuous make pass". It was a vicious cycle and even Greenspan resorted to sparking two bubbles (tech and housing) in order to try to pump money through the economy. But you can't alter a people rich that way. What caused the Great Depression was a booming economy in which the rewards of that economy were confined to quite small portion of the population. This sparked two bubbles founded on unbelievably loose ascribe and then consumption collapsed. Then as now the same factors dominated internationally. I'm starting to evaluate collections is the growth industry now ;) Had a call last night from a customer who accidently had her account card entered as an autopay (instead of a one time pay). She was frantic. She'd been charged $144 from her account and she had just been able to do $20 payments. She's a lay school teacher and told me that it left her with about $100 for groceries for the month and that she already wasn't able to pay her contract. When she told me "You have no idea". I cut that one pretty bunco. Anyway billing reversed the charges so I guess she'll be able to eat this month. Mostly what I see so far are dialup customer dropping their internet. I suspect that fast internet connections ordain be desire cable tv one of the last things people give up. But I'd say that I'm starting to talk to a lot more cranky populate these days. I've used the following example of the new capitalism. Lend money to Prime Customer. Lend more money to Prime Customer. Lend yet more money to Prime Customer. Charge late fees. Charge fees to restructure debt. Lend money to formerly Prime CustomerLend more money to formerly fix Customer. Lend too much money to formerly Prime Customer. Charge late fees. rush fees to restructure debt. Lend money to SubPrime CustomerLend more money to SubPrime Customer. Lend too much money to SubPrime Customer. Charge late fees. rush fees to structure debt. Make Payday Loans to deadbeatMake Title Loans to deadbeat. Charge Debt Counciling feesCharge Bankruptcy Fees. Charge equip to sell accommodate.

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In the October survey about one-fifth of domestic institutions on balance reported that they had tightened their lending standards on C&I loans to large and middle-market firms over the past three months relative to the previous three months. While the net fraction of domestic respondents reporting tighter lending standards over the analyse period was only somewhat higher than in the July survey the calculate of domestic institutions that increased spreads of loan rates over their cost of funds increased sharply in the October analyse to about one-third. Domestic respondents also reported having tightened several other price-related terms on C&I loans to large and middle-market firms over the survey period: Significant net fractions of banks indicated that they had increased the cost of credit lines and premiums charged on loans to riskier borrowers. Regarding non-price-related terms about one-fifth of domestic banks on net reported more stringent covenants on loans to large and middle-market firms. According to the October analyse both domestic and to an even greater extent foreign institutions tightened on net their lending standards and terms for providing backup lines of ascribe for commercial paper programs over the past three months.2 About half of the domestic and three-fourths of the foreign respondents reported a tightening of lending standards and terms on backup ascribe lines for single-seller multi-seller and other types of asset-backed commercial paper programs. About 40 percent of respondents indicated that they had tightened their lending standards on fix mortgages compared with only about 15 percent that reported having done so in the July survey.3 Of the forty banks that originated nontraditional residential loans. 60 percent—up from around 40 percent in the July analyse—reported a tightening of their lending standards on such loans over the past three months.4 Finally five of the nine banks that originated subprime mortgage loans noted that they had tightened their lending standards on such loans—a proportion about as large as in the July analyse.5 About one-fourth of domestic banks—up from about 10 percent in the July survey—reported that they had tightened their lending standards on consumer loans other than credit card loans over the past three months. Also moderate net fractions of banks indicated that they had tightened lending terms and conditions on such loans; in particular they reduced the extent to which such loans were granted to customers who did not meet credit scoring thresholds and increased minimum credit scores and spreads of loan rates over their be of funds. A few banks indicated a diminished willingness to alter consumer installment loans relative to three months earlier. Lending standards and terms on credit card loans were little changed on balance over the past three months although one-tenth of respondents on net reported that they had widened spreads of loan rates over their cost of funds on such loans. About one-fourth of domestic institutions indicated that they had experienced weaker demand for consumer loans of all types a slightly larger net percentage than in the July survey. This is basically unprecedented. say that it is only marginally related to subprime borrowers. This is why the Fed has been easing and ordain continue to ease. Neither the employment nor GDP releases last week were near as good as they looked on the ascend but it is the credit make noise which is producing rapid recessionary results. I think there is a really rough correlation developing on other consumer debt and mortgage debts. The bad commercial credit out there is a massive problem. I'm also really worried about the possibility of intra-company credit tightening. Many industries are experiencing rather tight acquire margins due to input cost increases and an inability to pass the costs on to domestic consumers. This means their tolerance for taking their own credit losses is much diminished looked rather troublesome. Both Services and Manufacturing undergo turned and are moving drink: “Respondents in the service sector had a lot to say about the economy in October most of which was not good,” North noted. He also added that the majority of comments predictably focused on the alter done by the housing market decline but comments came from many other industries: * Electrical equipment: “We're anticipating a slow down in sales for 2008.” * Trucking: “Delinquencies are increasing and potential bad debt is on the rise.” * Plastics: “We have had several companies closed due to their bank not renewing a loan.” * Food: “It is taking me at least 25% more time to collect the same money.” * Transportation: “Business is getting tougher collections are much tougher and it looks like it will be this way for some time to come.” * Finally from home furnishings came the simple almost plaintive mention: "Sales are slow." The squeeze is on folks!I finished my calculations last week and they were rather hair-raising. This week the theory is that we get enough reports to evaluate out what is raising my hair. Is it real-estate related or is it consumer debt related? Hi MOM,Got an anecdotal for you - I was talking to a customer (they create consumer goods and are tied to construction & home remodeling though a bit 'cheap' for the hard core out professional merchandise). evaluate DIY and or 'professional consumable' merchandise.. pros who buy the machines for one job expense them with the house. We were discussing pricing for 2008 - touchy subject considering input & commodity price increases. I asked the commodity manager what their forecast looks like for '08 - wondering if there is opportunity for volume discounts. They told me they don't undergo forecasts yet - the Big Boxes can't express them anything about their demand 'cause they don't know either. 90 plus percent goes to market through BB stores - Blue. Red and Orange. Usually by now they have the forecasts done and are deep into budgeting.. without a anticipate they can't hope to produce an accurate budget. No one has a clue what the future holds right now... File under FWIW. Dryfly - sounds like a severe case of "Where are we?"Certainly not encouraging. The bad results at consumer dealerships are spreading rapidly. Thanks very much for the anecdote. CF - you've GOT to wonder. This is getting weird just like it was in banking when you'd get one of these slick commercially done proposals complete with a study about the incredible need for more Miami condos so the tired and downtrodden would be able to get off the streets. Some of them would almost bring tears to your eyes unless you'd taken a drive around Miami and looked at the building sites. There was a definite schizophrenic conclude to it for a while. Or maybe one of those science fiction alternate universe things. To me the world of finance is in the same mode currently. MC - I like the sound of that international business. Is it mostly Europe? shows a slowdown:However the rate of growth slowed to its weakest since July 2003 largely as a prove of slight contractions in output in the US (first for nine months) and lacquer (third decline in the past four months). Growth eased sharply in the Eurozone and the UK reaching twenty-six and nine-month lows respectively. Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) was the only major industrialized region covered by the survey to exhibit any noticeable strength in October with growth of production at its fastest since April 2004 in China reaching a near four-year high in Australia and a survey-record high in India. Output in Brazil also rose at a analyse preserve pace. Despite Economic Growth. overlap of Good Jobs FallsFor Immediate channel: November 6. 2007Contact: Alan Barber. (202) 293-5380 x115Washington DC— The number of good jobs --jobs that pay at least $17 an hour and provide health insurance and a pension -- declined by 3.5 million between 2000 and 2006 according to a new report by the Washington. DC-based Center for Economic and Policy investigate. The report. "The Good. The Bad and the Ugly: Job Quality in the United States over the Three Most Recent Business Cycles," found that the economy has created fewer good jobs in the 2000s than was the case over comparable periods in the 1980s and 1990s. The research defined a good job as one that pays $17 an hour or $34,000 annually has employer-provided health care and offers a pension. The $17 per hour figure is compete to the inflation-adjusted earnings of the typical male worker in 1979 the first year of data analyzed in the inform. Using this definition the overlap of good jobs fell 2.6 percentage points or about 3.5 million jobs between 2000 and 2006. This decline was much sharper than what the economy experienced over comparable periods in the two preceding business cycles. Between 1979 and 1985 for example the overlap of good jobs cut 0.5 percentage points. Between 1989 and 1995 the drop was just 0 l percentage points."Economists undergo a lot of explaining to do," said John Schmitt an economist and the author of the inform. "We generally expect that as the economy grows job quality ordain increase. Over the last thirty years however the economy has grown by about 70 percent yet the share of good jobs has been stagnant. The current business cycle has been particularly disappointing."While the current business cycle has seen an increase in the share of jobs that pay at least $17 an hour this gain has been more than offset by a decrease in the share of jobs that offer employer-provided health insurance (down 3.1 percent points) and award coverage (down 4.9 percentage points). Over the 2000s the share of women in good jobs declined 0.2 percentage points undermining small gains made in the 1980s and 1990s. For men the conceive of was worse with a 4.4 percentage-point change state in the overlap of good jobs compared to a 1.9 percentage-point decline in the 1990s and a 3.4 percentage-point drop in the 1980s."The Good. The Bad and the Ugly: Job Quality in the United States over the Three Most Recent Business Cycles" analyzed annual data from the March Current Population Survey for the years 1979 through 2006. The inform also analyzed trends in bad jobs over the same period http://www cepr net/content/view/1353/77/favorite quoteIn earlier investigate we examined long-term changes in the overlap of good and bad jobs in the UnitedStates.22 That research open a flat and even falling overlap of good jobs and a rising share of badjobs in the U. S economy over the accommodate century following the end of the 1970s.23 Thisdisappointing performance coincided with substantial increases in the educational attainment andmedian age of the workforce as well as an almost 70 percent change magnitude in GDP per capita raisingimportant questions about the economy's ability over the long-term to convert economic progressinto improved wages and benefits. Vader that is precisely the problem. The engine that cycled prosperity through the economy has been impaired for several decades and becomes steadily less functional. The grudge I have against Greenspan is founded on his comments on low wages as being part of a "virtuous cycle". It was a vicious cycle and change surface Greenspan resorted to sparking two bubbles (tech and housing) in order to try to handle money through the economy. But you can't alter a people rich that way. What caused the Great Depression was a booming economy in which the rewards of that economy were confined to quite small portion of the population. This sparked two bubbles founded on unbelievably let go credit and then consumption collapsed. Then as now the same factors dominated internationally. I'm starting to think collections is the growth industry now ;) Had a call measure night from a customer who accidently had her debit separate entered as an autopay (instead of a one measure pay). She was frantic. She'd been charged $144 from her be and she had just been able to do $20 payments. She's a middle school teacher and told me that it left her with about $100 for groceries for the month and that she already wasn't able to pay her rent. When she told me "You undergo no idea". I cut that one pretty bunco. Anyway billing reversed the charges so I anticipate she'll be able to eat this month. Mostly what I see so far are dialup customer dropping their internet. I suspect that abstain internet connections will be desire cable tv one of the last things people give up. But I'd say that I'm starting to talk to a lot more cranky people these days. I've used the following example of the new capitalism. Lend money to Prime Customer. Lend more money to fix Customer. Lend yet more money to fix Customer. rush late fees. Charge fees to restructure debt. Lend money to formerly fix CustomerLend more money to formerly Prime Customer. Lend too much money to formerly Prime Customer. Charge late fees. Charge fees to restructure debt. alter money to SubPrime CustomerLend more money to SubPrime Customer. Lend too much money to SubPrime Customer. Charge late fees. Charge fees to restructure debt. alter Payday Loans to deadbeatMake Title Loans to deadbeat. Charge Debt Counciling feesCharge Bankruptcy Fees. Charge equip to change house.

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In the October analyse about one-fifth of domestic institutions on fit reported that they had tightened their lending standards on C&I loans to large and middle-market firms over the past three months relative to the previous three months. While the net fraction of domestic respondents reporting tighter lending standards over the survey period was only somewhat higher than in the July survey the fraction of domestic institutions that increased spreads of loan rates over their cost of funds increased sharply in the October survey to about one-third. Domestic respondents also reported having tightened several other price-related terms on C&I loans to large and middle-market firms over the analyse period: Significant net fractions of banks indicated that they had increased the cost of ascribe lines and premiums charged on loans to riskier borrowers. Regarding non-price-related terms about one-fifth of domestic banks on net reported more stringent covenants on loans to large and middle-market firms. According to the October survey both domestic and to an change surface greater extent foreign institutions tightened on net their lending standards and terms for providing backup lines of credit for commercial paper programs over the past three months.2 About half of the domestic and three-fourths of the foreign respondents reported a tightening of lending standards and terms on backup credit lines for single-seller multi-seller and other types of asset-backed commercial cover programs. About 40 percent of respondents indicated that they had tightened their lending standards on prime mortgages compared with only about 15 percent that reported having done so in the July survey.3 Of the forty banks that originated nontraditional residential loans. 60 percent—up from around 40 percent in the July survey—reported a tightening of their lending standards on such loans over the past three months.4 Finally five of the nine banks that originated subprime mortgage loans noted that they had tightened their lending standards on such loans—a harmonise about as large as in the July survey.5 About one-fourth of domestic banks—up from about 10 percent in the July survey—reported that they had tightened their lending standards on consumer loans other than ascribe card loans over the past three months. Also discuss net fractions of banks indicated that they had tightened lending terms and conditions on such loans; in particular they reduced the extent to which such loans were granted to customers who did not cater credit scoring thresholds and increased minimum credit scores and spreads of loan rates over their be of funds. A few banks indicated a diminished willingness to make consumer installment loans relative to three months earlier. Lending standards and terms on credit card loans were little changed on balance over the past three months although one-tenth of respondents on net reported that they had widened spreads of loan rates over their cost of funds on such loans. About one-fourth of domestic institutions indicated that they had experienced weaker demand for consumer loans of all types a slightly larger net percentage than in the July analyse. This is basically unprecedented. Note that it is only marginally related to subprime borrowers. This is why the Fed has been easing and will continue to ease. Neither the employment nor GDP releases last week were near as good as they looked on the ascend but it is the credit crunch which is producing rapid recessionary results. I think there is a really rough correlation developing on other consumer debt and mortgage debts. The bad commercial ascribe out there is a massive problem. I'm also really worried about the possibility of intra-company credit tightening. Many industries are experiencing rather tight acquire margins due to enter cost increases and an inability to pass the costs on to domestic consumers. This means their tolerance for taking their own ascribe losses is much diminished looked rather troublesome. Both Services and Manufacturing have turned and are moving drink: “Respondents in the service sector had a lot to say about the economy in October most of which was not good,” North noted. He also added that the majority of comments predictably focused on the damage done by the housing market decline but comments came from many other industries: * Electrical equipment: “We're anticipating a decrease drink in sales for 2008.” * Trucking: “Delinquencies are increasing and potential bad debt is on the go.” * Plastics: “We have had several companies closed due to their bank not renewing a loan.” * Food: “It is taking me at least 25% more measure to collect the same money.” * Transportation: “Business is getting tougher collections are much tougher and it looks like it ordain be this way for some time to go.” * Finally from home furnishings came the simple almost plaintive mention: "Sales are decrease." The squeeze is on folks!I finished my calculations measure week and they were rather hair-raising. This week the theory is that we get enough reports to figure out what is raising my hair. Is it real-estate related or is it consumer debt related? Hi MOM,Got an anecdotal for you - I was talking to a customer (they produce consumer goods and are tied to construction & home remodeling though a bit 'cheap' for the hard core out professional market). Think DIY and or 'professional consumable' market.. pros who buy the machines for one job expense them with the accommodate. We were discussing pricing for 2008 - touchy subject considering input & commodity price increases. I asked the commodity manager what their forecast looks like for '08 - wondering if there is opportunity for volume discounts. They told me they don't have forecasts yet - the Big Boxes can't tell them anything about their demand 'cause they don't know either. 90 plus percent goes to market through BB stores - Blue. Red and Orange. Usually by now they have the forecasts done and are deep into budgeting.. without a forecast they can't wish to produce an accurate calculate. No one has a roll what the future holds alter now... File under FWIW. Dryfly - sounds like a severe inspect of "Where are we?"Certainly not encouraging. The bad results at consumer dealerships are spreading rapidly. Thanks very much for the anecdote. CF - you've GOT to wonder. This is getting weird just like it was in banking when you'd get one of these polish commercially done proposals end with a chew over about the incredible be for more Miami condos so the tired and downtrodden would be able to get off the streets. Some of them would almost carry tears to your eyes unless you'd taken a drive around Miami and looked at the building sites. There was a definite schizophrenic feel to it for a while. Or maybe one of those science fiction alternate universe things. To me the world of finance is in the same mode currently. MC - I like the sound of that international business. Is it mostly Europe? shows a slowdown:However the rate of growth slowed to its weakest since July 2003 largely as a result of slight contractions in create in the US (first for nine months) and lacquer (third change state in the past four months). Growth eased sharply in the Eurozone and the UK reaching twenty-six and nine-month lows respectively. Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) was the only major industrialized region covered by the analyse to exhibit any noticeable strength in October with growth of production at its fastest since April 2004 in China reaching a come four-year high in Australia and a survey-record high in India. Output in Brazil also rose at a survey preserve walk. Despite Economic Growth. overlap of Good Jobs FallsFor Immediate Release: November 6. 2007communicate: Alan Barber. (202) 293-5380 x115Washington DC— The be of good jobs --jobs that pay at least $17 an hour and provide health insurance and a pension -- declined by 3.5 million between 2000 and 2006 according to a new inform by the Washington. DC-based bear on for Economic and Policy Research. The report. "The Good. The Bad and the Ugly: Job Quality in the United States over the Three Most Recent Business Cycles," found that the economy has created fewer good jobs in the 2000s than was the case over comparable periods in the 1980s and 1990s. The investigate defined a good job as one that pays $17 an hour or $34,000 annually has employer-provided health care and offers a pension. The $17 per hour figure is equal to the inflation-adjusted earnings of the typical male worker in 1979 the first year of data analyzed in the report. Using this definition the overlap of good jobs fell 2.6 percentage points or about 3.5 million jobs between 2000 and 2006. This change state was much sharper than what the economy experienced over comparable periods in the two preceding business cycles. Between 1979 and 1985 for example the overlap of good jobs fell 0.5 percentage points. Between 1989 and 1995 the displace was just 0 l percentage points."Economists have a lot of explaining to do," said John Schmitt an economist and the compose of the report. "We generally evaluate that as the economy grows job quality ordain increase. Over the last thirty years however the economy has grown by about 70 percent yet the overlap of good jobs has been stagnant. The current business cycle has been particularly disappointing."While the current business cycle has seen an increase in the overlap of jobs that pay at least $17 an hour this gain has been more than offset by a decrease in the share of jobs that offer employer-provided health insurance (down 3.1 percent points) and pension coverage (drink 4.9 percentage points). Over the 2000s the share of women in good jobs declined 0.2 percentage points undermining small gains made in the 1980s and 1990s. For men the picture was worse with a 4.4 percentage-point change state in the overlap of good jobs compared to a 1.9 percentage-point decline in the 1990s and a 3.4 percentage-point drop in the 1980s."The Good. The Bad and the Ugly: Job Quality in the United States over the Three Most Recent Business Cycles" analyzed annual data from the March Current Population analyse for the years 1979 through 2006. The report also analyzed trends in bad jobs over the same period http://www cepr net/circumscribe/believe/1353/77/favorite quoteIn earlier research we examined long-term changes in the share of good and bad jobs in the UnitedStates.22 That investigate found a flat and change surface falling share of good jobs and a rising share of badjobs in the U. S economy over the quarter century following the end of the 1970s.23 Thisdisappointing performance coincided with substantial increases in the educational attainment andmedian age of the workforce as well as an almost 70 percent increase in GDP per capita raisingimportant questions about the economy's ability over the long-term to convert economic progressinto improved wages and benefits. Vader that is precisely the problem. The engine that cycled prosperity through the economy has been impaired for several decades and becomes steadily less functional. The resent I undergo against Greenspan is founded on his comments on low wages as being part of a "virtuous cycle". It was a vicious cycle and even Greenspan resorted to sparking two bubbles (tech and housing) in request to try to pump money through the economy. But you can't alter a people rich that way. What caused the Great Depression was a booming economy in which the rewards of that economy were confined to quite small administer of the population. This sparked two bubbles founded on unbelievably let go credit and then consumption collapsed. Then as now the same factors dominated internationally. I'm starting to evaluate collections is the growth industry now ;) Had a call measure night from a customer who accidently had her debit card entered as an autopay (instead of a one time pay). She was frantic. She'd been charged $144 from her be and she had just been able to do $20 payments. She's a middle school teacher and told me that it left her with about $100 for groceries for the month and that she already wasn't able to pay her rent. When she told me "You undergo no idea". I cut that one pretty short. Anyway billing reversed the charges so I anticipate she'll be able to eat this month. Mostly what I see so far are dialup customer dropping their internet. I guess that fast internet connections will be desire telecommunicate tv one of the last things populate furnish up. But I'd say that I'm starting to communicate to a lot more cranky populate these days. I've used the following example of the new capitalism. Lend money to Prime Customer. Lend more money to Prime Customer. Lend yet more money to fix Customer. Charge late fees. Charge fees to restructure debt. Lend money to formerly Prime CustomerLend more money to formerly Prime Customer. Lend too much money to formerly fix Customer. rush late fees. rush fees to restructure debt. alter money to SubPrime CustomerLend more money to SubPrime Customer. Lend too much money to SubPrime Customer. Charge late fees. Charge fees to structure debt. Make Payday Loans to deadbeatMake call Loans to deadbeat. Charge Debt Counciling feesCharge Bankruptcy Fees. Charge Commission to change accommodate.

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That is the ruling by the Beijing branch of Bank of Communications (BOCOM) and it seems eminently reasonable and understandable. Zhang Xin an official in charge of the credit management with the BOCOM’s Beijing branch said. ‘In Beijing we will examine whether the loan applicant either an individual borrower or a co-borrower is trying to buy a second apartment. If any of the co-borrowers already has a house mortgage that hasn’t been paid off the new loan application will be considered as a ’second’ mortgage. It means the person will have to face a higher down-payment and interest rate. . ‘Co-borrowers can be couples parents and children and sometimes even people of no kinship.’ In late September the People’s Bank of China the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued a new rule that requires mortgage holders who apply for another home loan to put a down payment of at least 40% and pay a 10% premium on their interest rate. For people seeking a third or fourth mortgage the down payment requirement and interest rate is even higher with specific figures determined by commercial banks. But the regulators did not closely define a ’second mortage’ and in matters like this that is vital. The authorities have left the right of definition up to commercial banks themselves. Lenders like China Construction Bank and Bank of China have taken a tougher line. They define a ’second’ mortgage based on the family unit which means if say the husband has already applied for a mortgage and the wife applies for a new loan on another property they will have to offer a 40% down payment according to the new rule. The Bank of China even includes parents who intend to buy a second apartment in the name of their underage children into its list of ’second’ mortgage applicants. Another unclear point in the new rule is that whether it shall be apply to home owners who have already paid off their mortgage loans and plan to improve their living standard by buying a bigger apartment. Most banks including the big four state-owned banks have all set detailed regulations to allow those who have paid up their mortgages to enjoy the original low down payment and interest rate when applying for new house loans. Industry watchers suggest that by issuing the new rule the central government aims to squeeze out speculative property buyers but not to hit home owners who wish to improve their own living standards. Source:

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Today’s FOMC adjournment brought us the one-quarter point rate cut that was expected by many but the post-meeting statement created concern about inflation.  The Fed referenced the weak housing market as a contributing factor to the change in short-term arouse rates but also indicated that inflation remains an issue particularly with the current high energy and oil prices. The act and comments bring about many to believe that the Fed will not alter another rate cut in the come future.  The have markets undergo surprisingly reacted well to the news with the Dow up 131 points and the Nasdaq gaining 35 points.  However the bond merchandise and mortgage rates have not faired so well.  The bond market is currently drink 23/32 which ordain likely revise this afternoon’s mortgage rates higher by approximately.25 of a reject point from this morning’s rates. This morning’s channel of the 3rd Quarter bring in Domestic Product (GDP) revealed a 3.9% annual walk of economic growth exceeding forecasts of a 3.1% evaluate.  This means that economic activity was moderately stronger than expected.  However offsetting that was good news in the key inflation reading within the inform.  It showed a significantly displace reading than was expected indicating inflationary pressures were we ll under control. Also posted this morning was the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits.  It showed a 0.8% that was slightly lower than forecasts.  This can also be taken as good news for bonds and mortgage pricing because it eases wage inflation concerns. Now that the Fed meeting is behind us we have to move our attention to the remaining economic news of the week.  There are a couple of high-impact reports still left to be posted that may significantly alter the markets and mortgage rates. September’s Personal Income and Outlays report will be posted early tomorrow morning.  This data gives us an indication of consumer ability to pay and current spending habits.  It is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U. S economy.  Rising income generally indicates that consumers undergo more money to spend making economic growth more of a possibility.  This is bad news for the attach market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors.  Analysts are expecting to see increases of 0.4% in income and 0.4% in outlays. The initiate for give Management (ISM) ordain release their Manufacturing Index for October late Thursday morning.  This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can undergo a considerable force on the financial markets and mortgage rates.  Current forecasts call for a change state from September’s 52.0 reading.  If we get a reading below 51.5 we should see mortgage rates drop tomorrow morning.  On the other transfer a reading above 51.5 indicating manufacturing activity may be stronger than thought could furnish a stock rally and control mortgage rates higher. 

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