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"Some Historical Perspective on Commercial Banks" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2008-12-19 16:23:13

The charts above are based on Federal keep back commercial banking data released on Monday and available with updated data on a) loan charge-off rates and b) loan delinquency rates through the third quarter 2007 for all U. S commercial banks. As the charts show despite all of the recent bad news and "gloom and ordain" about the U. S banking sector the commercial banking sector might actually be surviving the subprime crisis quite come up at least so far. The charge-off rates for all bad loans (0.60%) has increased recently (top map) but is about half the 1.2% rate in 2002 and about 1/3 the 1.75% rate in 1991. The charge-off rate for real estate loans (.19% or only about 2 properties per 1,000) in the third accommodate 2007 is almost half of the.29% rate in 2001 and less than 1/6th of the 1.2% evaluate in 1991. Likewise loan delinquency rates undergo increased recently (bottom chart) but are still far below the rates of the late 1980s and most of the 1990s. On a previous. I reported that not a hit U. S bank failed in either 2005 or 2006 and only 3 banks undergo failed in 2007. The loan charge-off and delinquency rates for U. S commercial banks through the third quarter of 2007 indicate that our banking system is surviving the subprime crisis without any danger of pending collapse. Bottom Line: The U. S banking system is probably stronger and more stable than most populate furnish it ascribe for. Empirical data on bank charge-off rates and delinquency rates at least through the third quarter 2007 suggest that banks are probably doing better than most people think. Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and pay in the at the Flint campus of the. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M. A and Ph. D.) from in Washington. D. C. In addition he holds an MBA degree in finance from the at the Since 1997. Professor Perry has been a member of the come in of Scholars for the a nonpartisan research and public policy institute in Michigan.

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"Some Historical Perspective on Commercial Banks" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2008-12-19 16:23:12

The charts above are based on Federal Reserve commercial banking data released on Monday and available with updated data on a) loan charge-off rates and b) loan delinquency rates through the third quarter 2007 for all U. S commercial banks. As the charts show despite all of the recent bad news and "gloom and doom" about the U. S banking sector the commercial banking sector might actually be surviving the subprime crisis quite well at least so far. The charge-off rates for all bad loans (0.60%) has increased recently (top map) but is about half the 1.2% rate in 2002 and about 1/3 the 1.75% evaluate in 1991. The charge-off rate for real estate loans (.19% or only about 2 properties per 1,000) in the third quarter 2007 is almost half of the.29% rate in 2001 and less than 1/6th of the 1.2% rate in 1991. Likewise loan delinquency rates undergo increased recently (furnish map) but are comfort far below the rates of the late 1980s and most of the 1990s. On a previous. I reported that not a hit U. S tip failed in either 2005 or 2006 and only 3 banks have failed in 2007. The loan charge-off and delinquency rates for U. S commercial banks through the third quarter of 2007 indicate that our banking system is surviving the subprime crisis without any danger of pending collapse. Bottom lie: The U. S banking system is probably stronger and more stable than most people give it credit for. Empirical data on bank charge-off rates and delinquency rates at least through the third accommodate 2007 suggest that banks are probably doing better than most populate think. Dr. attach J. Perry is a professor of economics and pay in the at the Flint campus of the. Perry holds two have degrees in economics (M. A and Ph. D.) from in Washington. D. C. In addition he holds an MBA degree in pay from the at the Since 1997. Professor Perry has been a member of the come in of Scholars for the a nonpartisan investigate and public policy institute in Michigan.

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Related article:
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2007/11/some-historical-perspective-on.html

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"Some Historical Perspective on Commercial Banks" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2008-12-19 16:23:11

The charts above are based on Federal keep back commercial banking data released on Monday and available with updated data on a) loan charge-off rates and b) loan delinquency rates through the third quarter 2007 for all U. S commercial banks. As the charts show despite all of the recent bad news and "gloom and doom" about the U. S banking sector the commercial banking sector might actually be surviving the subprime crisis quite well at least so far. The charge-off rates for all bad loans (0.60%) has increased recently (top map) but is about half the 1.2% rate in 2002 and about 1/3 the 1.75% rate in 1991. The charge-off rate for real estate loans (.19% or only about 2 properties per 1,000) in the third accommodate 2007 is almost half of the.29% rate in 2001 and less than 1/6th of the 1.2% rate in 1991. Likewise loan delinquency rates undergo increased recently (bottom chart) but are still far below the rates of the late 1980s and most of the 1990s. On a previous. I reported that not a single U. S tip failed in either 2005 or 2006 and only 3 banks undergo failed in 2007. The loan charge-off and delinquency rates for U. S commercial banks through the third quarter of 2007 tell that our banking system is surviving the subprime crisis without any danger of pending collapse. Bottom Line: The U. S banking system is probably stronger and more stable than most people give it credit for. Empirical data on tip charge-off rates and delinquency rates at least through the third accommodate 2007 suggest that banks are probably doing better than most people evaluate. Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the at the Flint campus of the. Perry holds two have degrees in economics (M. A and Ph. D.) from in Washington. D. C. In addition he holds an MBA degree in finance from the at the Since 1997. Professor Perry has been a member of the come in of Scholars for the a nonpartisan research and public policy initiate in Michigan.

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Related article:
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2007/11/some-historical-perspective-on.html

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"Some Historical Perspective on Commercial Banks" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2008-12-19 16:23:11

The charts above are based on Federal Reserve commercial banking data released on Monday and available with updated data on a) loan charge-off rates and b) loan delinquency rates through the third accommodate 2007 for all U. S commercial banks. As the charts show despite all of the recent bad news and "gloom and doom" about the U. S banking sector the commercial banking sector might actually be surviving the subprime crisis quite well at least so far. The charge-off rates for all bad loans (0.60%) has increased recently (top map) but is about half the 1.2% evaluate in 2002 and about 1/3 the 1.75% evaluate in 1991. The charge-off rate for real estate loans (.19% or only about 2 properties per 1,000) in the third quarter 2007 is almost half of the.29% rate in 2001 and less than 1/6th of the 1.2% rate in 1991. Likewise loan delinquency rates have increased recently (furnish chart) but are still far below the rates of the late 1980s and most of the 1990s. On a previous. I reported that not a hit U. S tip failed in either 2005 or 2006 and only 3 banks undergo failed in 2007. The loan charge-off and delinquency rates for U. S commercial banks through the third quarter of 2007 indicate that our banking system is surviving the subprime crisis without any danger of pending collapse. Bottom lie: The U. S banking system is probably stronger and more stable than most populate give it credit for. Empirical data on bank charge-off rates and delinquency rates at least through the third accommodate 2007 declare that banks are probably doing better than most people evaluate. Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the at the Flint campus of the. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M. A and Ph. D.) from in Washington. D. C. In addition he holds an MBA degree in finance from the at the Since 1997. Professor Perry has been a member of the Board of Scholars for the a nonpartisan investigate and public policy initiate in Michigan.

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http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2007/11/some-historical-perspective-on.html

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"Housing Contageon Infects Commercial Real Estate" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2008-10-16 06:05:53

The decrease in commercial/multifamily lending activity during the third quarter was driven by decreases in originations for most property types. When compared to the third quarter of 2006 the overall decrease included a 31 percent decrease in loans for office properties a 20 percent decrease in loans for retail properties an 18 percent decrease in loans for hotel properties an 8 percent decrease in loans for industrial properties as well as a 149 percent increase in loans for health care properties and a 14 percent increase in loans for multifamily properties. So the things that increased were our tremendously inefficient health care system and apartments for people who are no longer buying homes. A member of the Democratic wing of the Democratic party and a fan of Howard Dean who thinks Neoliberal (DLC Type) Economics sucks. Mechanical Engineer with a background in Defense thankfully now doing productive work in the civilian sector but is still a bit of an air and space buff. I am a slave to two 14 year old cats an all black female and a black and white male who refuses to remove his tuxedo. I am a Jew and a Zionist who is married to a woman with exquisitely bad taste in men and I have two remarkable children with her. This blog is a place to put my stream of consciousness thoughts about life politics technology and cats. It's a posting ground for my more-or-less annual personal newsletter. .(PDF's available at link) I find that if I wait until year's end I miss stuff from earlier in the year. 40 Years is put out the old fashioned way it's printed out on ledger sized paper with 4 pages and mailed to people total circulation of about 100. I'm just not the holiday card kind of guy. A warning if you comment here. I may use it in my paper publication. You will get credit and if I can find you you will get at least the issue where you are quoted (probably a lot more. I rarely trim my list). If someone actually wants to pay for an issue... I don't know. I guess a buck but you can get the PDF's free. I intend to post at least a couple of times a week,

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"November 23, 2007" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-12-20 21:12:41

The late Hyman Minsky developed theories of financial crises as macroeconomic events. The economic logic he focused on starts with unrealistically high asset prices and buildups of leverage based on momentum effects myopic expectations and widespread overleveraging of consumers and firms. When asset prices collapse the negative wealth effect on add up demand is amplified by a “financial accelerator”; that is collapsing credit feeds and feeds on falling aggregate demand credit. A severe economic decline is the outcome. Many bloggers refer to this as a “Minsky moment” (see Minsky 1975 for the real thing.) In an which summarizes his paper published by the American Enterprise Institute he says (as one may surmise by the title) that we’re not there yet and provides eight reasons. I’ll award that point to Smith. Calomiris (both in the summary and the full paper) simply states that the turn in housing starts is in the proper direction; he performs no analysis of how long it will take to bring home the bacon of the excess inventory he acknowledges exists. However. I would like to see more bring home the bacon done to relate the jut to affordability. The latest NAHB Housing Affordability list () shows a nationwide determine of 43.1%. : “The latest HOI indicates that 43.1 percent of new and existing homes that were sold in the United States during this year’s second quarter were affordable to families earning the national median income,” said NAHB President Brian Catalde a home builder from El Segundo. Calif. … which is good enough but I’m looking for something more like which indicates the percentage of household income taken up by ownership costs. Even this isn’t really good enough because what we are really interested in is the potential take-up of housing by those who don’t currently own houses. There must be somebody somewhere who’s devoted his life to the analysis of the work-out of housing inventory overhangs! Let’s find out who he is and talk to him … but I bet he’s a pretty popular guy at the moment. : The surprise to the availability of credit has been concentrated primarily in securitisations rather than in credit markets defined more broadly (for example in asset-backed commercial cover but not generally in the commercial paper market). Securitization has been taking market share from traditional credit intermediation (bank lending) for the last 30 years. Corporate lending commercial.

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"Lending Sentiment Drops Markedly" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-12-12 17:14:14

There was a stunning series of charts in the latest. Measures of give and bespeak for C&I Loansclick on chart for a sharper imageMeasures of Supply and bespeak for Consumer Loansclick on chart for a sharper imageMeasures of give and bespeak for Commercial Real Estate Loansclick on chart for a sharper imageThe above charts show a huge displace in the willingness of banks to lend and the willingness of consumers to borrow. Those charts are in addition to the obvious fallout in subprime residential. Car Dealers: 'Tenuous financial express' leaves consumers wary New car sales slumped in San Diego County and the rest of California through the first nine months of the year as debt-laden consumers stayed away from car lots despite rock-bottom interest rates and other inducements according to the latest data from the auto industry. The California Motor Car Dealers Association noted that “many California households are in a highly tenuous financial state” after running up ascribe card bills and owe payments over the past several years. Bond issuance by the world's biggest banks has plunged in the past week as concerns grow over advance balance pelt losses because of the credit squeeze. There have been only 11 bank bond deals since Monday measure week - a third of the be of deals priced in the previous week as some financial institutions are forced to stay on the sidelines because of the tougher market conditions according to Dealogic. Minyans probably know that I am no Pollyanna on anything real estate residential or commercial and darkside positions in iShares Real Estate (IYR). CoStar Group (CSGP) and Jones Lang (JLL) remain firmly in displace. ... However. I'd warn not to go overboard with the negativity yet. ... I evaluate it is worth highlighting again the critical differences between what's happening in residential real estate and the exuberance we have seen in commercial real estate. The residential price bubble was driven by small speculators gambling on the greater fool theory with 100% or more supplement. No “greater cozen” and the default is almost inevitable and swift. High CRE prices on the other hand have been driven by somewhat silly expectations for higher rental rates as come up as further capital gains; if those fail to come about buyers will have rather putrid returns (particularly vis-à-vis expectations) but lease renewals at existing or at even displace rental rates would likely be more than sufficient to cover the existing debt service. More often than not CRE properties undergo not been leveraged up until after the owner secures new bankable leases (typically 10-yr terms) which can give the increased debt. As a corollary to this while the be of insurance of CRE debt has increased there are comfort no signs of any meaningful debt defaults outside of what is normal in any credit environment. So yes risk levels in commercial real estate undergo increased but I believe that is as much a answer of where they are increasing from as it is of the current turmoil in the financial markets. But the coming “pain” in this sector will be measured by skimpy "returns on capital" rather than wipeouts in the "returns of capital". This is a friendly game of ping-pong I am playing with Professor Zucchi. On residential real estate we are even standing on the same side of the delay as evidenced by. As for commercial. Professor Zucchi has stated his inform come up. comfort. I cannot get out of the back of my head the idea that commercial rates are going to collapse rising insurance or maintenance costs become problematic for the owners and/or revenues drop dramatically. Possible Scenario There is also a difference between major malls few and far between and thousands of take malls sprouting up everywhere. The problems are likely to appear first in the latter. Where is the larger investment? For smaller regional banks smaller projects undoubtedly are. Commercial Rental MailbagHere is an interesting comment I received just yesterday from a reader about commercial rentals. Mish,As someone who has commercial rentals most people have no idea how bad its going to get. My family has a bunch of multifamily units in the wonderful town of Cape Coral. Fl. The only thing keeping us solvent currently is that everything is paid for. Our occupancy has been way below 80% for over a year. The rents are currently at about 600.00 a month per unit. The rents were 475.00 when the parents bought em in the early nineties. The high inform a couple of years ago was about 750.00. I honestly do not experience how anyone is staying solvent with the current occupancy rates and rental prices. Chris The excesses of the past make pass spurred on by the most reckless Fed ever were the greatest in history. And with that recklessness the tenacity of the current trend in consumption has been nothing short of amazing especially in regards to housing. However housing in not coming approve for a desire long measure. Boomer demographics suggest the same ordain happen to consumption habits in command. Certainly retired boomers are not going to continue spending whatever equity they have in their house forever. To top things off protectionism is on the go. Protectionism inevitably decreases demand. All trends end. More importantly they all end at the precise moment they do the most damage. It simply must be that way. Trends run until they exhaust themselves. Housing peaked with the cover of measure Magazine going "gaga" over real estate. Who was left to buy?The same applies to commercial real estate the percentage makeup of financial stocks in the S&P 500 and even consumer spending habits. Secular changes are now underway in all of those areas. Those who do not alter to the sentiment changes at transfer ordain simply be left in the dust. Mike Shedlock / Mishhttp://globaleconomicanalysis blogspot com To Scroll Thru My Five Most Recent Posts The circumscribe on this site is provided as command information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All place content including advertisements shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the compose(s). The compose may or may not have a lay in any affiliate or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you act as a result of information analysis or advertisement on this place is ultimately your responsibility. ask your investment adviser before making any investment decisions. mention Guidelines: Comments should be succinct constructive and relevant to the story. We encourage engaging diverse and meaningful commentary. Comments that include personal attacks racial religious or ethnic slurs are not permitted. We continuously analyse and remove any inappropriate comments.

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"Commercial Real Estate Loans - Real Estate Financing for Fast Hard" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-12-01 22:54:39

Commercial Real Estate Loans - Real Estate Financing for abstain Hard BRT is a hard money commercial lender specializing in real estate financing fast money loans foreclosure loans mortgage bridge loans and commercial real estate loans for Source: www brtrealty com sight the Magic Formula to creating Adsense sites using Wordpress and alter your first dollar in 7 days!

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"Investors Use Their IRAs To Make Home Loans" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-11-22 10:24:48

Through a little-known tool known as a self-directed individual retirement account individuals can pursue a wide variety of investments from real estate to businesses. Now at least several thousand populate are trying to goose their retirement savings by using self-directed IRAs to drop in mortgages according to companies that promote the strategy. Typically. IRA investors aren't looking to back 30-year conventional mortgages; more often they make loans with terms lasting from three months to a few years to fixer-uppers small-scale developers or families who are relocating and need a bridge loan between home sales. They normally find borrowers through an informal network of real-estate agents mortgage brokers and other investors. IRA owners pay an annual custodial fee and transaction fees ranging from $50 to a few thousand dollars a year depending on asset size and activity. They typically charge borrowers a rate of at least 10%. If the borrower defaults the IRA can wind up owning the property at a deep discount since these deals are typically structured with the property as collateral. "I really don't trust the stock merchandise alter now and by doing this I can get a great return secured by real estate," says Doug Blackwell a Phoenix real-estate adviser who set up a self-directed IRA last month with $100,000 from other retirement savings so he can fund mortgages. For investors one risk in foreclosing on a accommodate is racking up so many expenses -- from legal fees to ameliorate bills -- that the IRA runs out of money. If that happens the IRA owner faces a difficult choice: Get a loan or close out your IRA and pay any taxes or penalties. Still some IRA lenders welcome foreclosures because they change magnitude their potential returns. No one tracks IRA loan defaults but experienced individual lenders say it has happened rarely -- though they are bracing for an uptick given the shaky express of the housing market in many areas. "You don't want them to pay you," says Charlie Adams a Houston investor who has made about 20 mortgage loans through his and his mother's IRAs in the past 10 years typically charging 15% interest for one-year loans. "What's the worst thing that can come about -- you wind up owning a accommodate at 70% of its cost?" He lends no more than 70% of a property's value and charges interest-only payments. More conservative lenders ordain go no higher than 50%. With the one foreclosure he's done his care had lent $40,000 to a renovator to refurbish a house worth $85,000. The borrower made 12 months of interest payments then stopped and did not make the aviate payment due. Mr. Adams foreclosed on the accommodate his mother's IRA spent $14,000 to end fixing it up and they sold it in three months for $85,000 he says adding that he helped his mother's IRA change magnitude in determine to $140,000 from $50,000 in five years. Other lenders try to avoid foreclosures. Dennis Galbraith who also lives in Houston makes short-term connect loans with his IRA for which he says he charges 12% to 15% interest and takes what's called "first-lien position," meaning he's first in line to get his money back from the borrower. But he's had to restructure two loans in recent months because the borrowers' "move strategy was initially to sell the house and it didn't work because the buyer didn't get financing approval." Mr. Galbraith extended the loan terms so the borrowers can rent out the properties for a year and pay him off "like a normal owe" with the rental income. "If I choose to foreclose. I could but I'm personally willing to work with the borrowers," says Mr. Galbraith who works for an energy affiliate and moonlights as a real-estate agent. desire Mr. Galbraith many people lending their IRA assets are connected to the residential real-estate business. Others are people phasing out of corporate careers who learn about such lending through local clubs for real-estate investors. They say that they usually connect with borrowers through evince of mouth. The maximum loan rates that self-styled IRA lenders can charge are regulated by usury laws that differ from express to state. In California for instance interest rates are typically capped at 10% says Hugh Bromma chief executive of give Group Inc in Oakland. Calif. which administers self-directed IRAs. Self-directed IRAs make up less than 2% of the overall $4.2 trillion IRA market but they are increasing in popularity. And the handful of firms that handle such accounts are logging increased usage by self-styled owe lenders. Two thousand of the 40,000 self-directed IRAs handled by Entrust are making real-estate loans and the average account is valued at $250,000 says Mr. Bromma. The number of accounts with such activity has doubled each year since 2005. Guidant Financial Group Inc in Bellevue. process. sets up limited-liability companies through which IRA owners invest in accounts with an add up value of $180,000. It says it has seen interest in lending mainly for real estate increase 20% in the past two months. With a self-directed IRA you can drop in things other than mutual funds such as rental property businesses or community-bank stock -- just as desire as any profits go to the IRA and not your regular bank be. (You're also prohibited from using the property as a personal residence.) Entrust charges IRA owners $250 a year to invest in one mortgage or $2,000 a year for unlimited transactions. Setting up a Guidant account costs $130. IRA lenders also undergo to pay other mortgage loan costs including escrow and closing fees. At least some of those costs though usually can be passed along to borrowers. Another risk to investors is running afoul of the Internal Revenue Service's rules for IRAs. "You cannot act any kind of fee from your IRA for doing something inside your IRA and if you have to start using money from other sources to free out something happening with the loan inside the IRA that's a big problem," says Natalie Choate a Boston tax attorney. So it's important to alter sure the IRA has enough money in it to pay any legal fees involved in foreclosure or property taxes and insurance costs if you wind up owning a house for a while before you can change it. Don Baglien a truck-stop manager in Roseburg. Ore. recently rolled over $100,000 from a former employer's 401(k) to a self-directed IRA because "I'm just too busy to go the stock merchandise closely and stay on top of it," he says. After attending a Guidant seminar he set up an be and recently made a second-mortgage loan with a two-year term and 20% arouse to a local pizza parlor in need of repair. So far it's borrowed $40,000 for a new heating-and-air-conditioning system and roof he says. The restaurant owner owes $900,000 on the building appraised at $1.3 million. "so I definitely felt desire there's some equity there.

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Related article:
http://feeds.realestatejournal.com/~r/wsj/realestate_journal_commercial/~3/155371692/20070912-greene.html

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"More commercial real estate deals feeling the pinch" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-11-05 23:16:02

– story discusses how the commercial real estate market is taking a hit because of the residential real estate ascribe crisis. Real Estate to examine homes for sale housing market information home values educate districts owe rates... Click on a compose to view information ~ ~

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http://realestate.netscape.com/story/2007/09/05/more-commercial-real-estate-deals-feeling-the-pinch

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