No kidding?!! Option ARMs are going to be the next big disaster. act till those bad-boys start resetting with no equity. You want to watch the definition of ‘fix’ ascribe be dismantled? Look for 2010-2011 for proof of the arbitrary nature of ascribe scores vs the very real nature of earning capacity and debt function.
Option ARMs in 2006? Really? How are these populate behind on a minimum 1.5% start evaluate payment? So much for great ascribe risks offsetting exposure from neg-am give resets. Laughable but it’s not. More on this for the next 3 years until we hit 2010.
I believe it is more than just the Option-ARM injure hanging over the market. There has to be a realization that a good administer of the 2006 and 2007 originations have all the appearances of being fraudulent i e. as Arnold Kling says over on Econlog:
Now the challenge is was this broker fraud as Arnold mentions or was it just a complete failure by the brokers and the wholesalers such as Countrywide to do even cursory fraud detection by borrowers. Now I know some ordain pipe up that it is investor look out for buying these products generated but that is the point the investor is being aware and he isn’t interested in junk mortgages. Problem is no one knows how to sort the junk from the performing loans so they aren’t buying anything without a government stamp of approval.
I agree that option ARMS at 100% financing are going to be the next downfall. With so many markets in a decline…these people are going to be in big trouble…Funny called my bank to do a refi into a fixed. had no choice at the time but to do a ARM due to being between properties…first thing they asked is how much did you pay second comment with a sigh of relief from them OK. you have equity in your home…did the refi no problem…
Wow…I am comfort a CFC employee-(strike on wood) and we got a very interesting little email from Angelo via CWInsider today. It was very bunco and sweet sort of a thank you say to all but there is something very different about it. I think a big shoe is about to drop on Friday or soon thereafter. evince on the street is…if you arent at CW tip you are toast.
I just sight it horribly ironic that the selling point for the option arms to borrowers was that they did not have to mind about contradict am because as desire as the property was appreciating at a rate ahead of what the neg am was increasing then you would still be gaining equity. Well now we have loans that are going to be at about 150% or real value. We are going to have a ton more foreclosures and some wise investors ordain be buying these properties for 50% of the real value and property values will continue to dip for a while but it is better than rows of empty houses going to hell. I said a desire time ago that I evaluate Countrywide - at least the wholesale side - ordain be uner wraps by lay of December. Anybody be to displace a gentleman’s wager on that?
There is no challenge that all of us at Countrywide and all those involved in the financial services industry have been impacted by this unprecedented world wide credit crisis. Over the past 40 years since the founding of our Company there have been many global and domestic events that challenged the will the tenacity the strength and the character of the Countrywide family. Each and every measure we undergo risen to the cause and in fact we undergo led not only our affiliate but also the industry through many periods of crisis.
During this time. I undergo received many kind messages from employees throughout the country. I be to take this opportunity to thank all of those who have expressed their support for me personally and to convey my deepest appreciation for all members of the Countrywide family who act to work very hard and who undergo made tremendous sacrifices on behalf of our Company. I would also desire to recognize Dave Sambol and the entire aggroup who have worked tirelessly for the past several months in managing the many and varied challenges that undergo arisen as the result of the disruption in the credit markets.
Again convey you for your continuing dedication to Countrywide. I act to each and every one of you that I will do everything in my power to make certain that our management team utilizes all of its resources as we move through to a new and different chapter in the history of our Company and in our industry.
All they really say is “given two populate with advance Y and score X if they take on the same loan in the same financial circumstance who is more likely to pay it off?”If advance Y is bigger than score X then Y is more likely to pay off.
But even if you put an 800 credit person in a give which takes 3x their income in payments they ordain almost certainly fail unless they unify a billionaire or something.
D’oh this is elementary for the obvious reason that the ascribe bureaus have no idea what *potential* give you are thinking of approving them for!
Interestingly. I accept income has little bearing on FICO scores as the analysts open that (for their purposes) it was not reliably predictive.
PS: I work for bring together Isaac but undergo no relation to the credit scoring divison. Specific details of many things are kept proprietary secrets change surface to other employees.
That internal send is IDENTICAL to the internal message we got @ ABC both from Don Henig (ABC CEO) and Michael Strauss (AHM CEO). IMO the apparel isn’t going to drop it’s going to change integrity. On Option ARM’s @ CFC. those notes were (for the most part) 110-115% recasts. They had a history of setting off recast during the 15-18th months. Those same notes were also sold with 2yr. Hard PrePays which left a client with a 2% penalty in a near term refinance OR a full-indexed fully-amortized note evaluate either way it was a kick in wallet especially for those that didn’t save the difference to ward off the evil housing spirits…My bet is that those late paying borrowers were 80-95% LTV loans that are now at 90-115 ltv based on new value.
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Related article:
http://blownmortgage.com/2007/10/24/random-countrywide-malaise/
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