Builder consultant Real Estate Economics in Irvine has new market list out for the state. Here’s a summary of what REE sees in its Composite Index of Leading Indicators combining the jobs-to-housing and mortgage cost-to-income indexes …
• Currently the Composite Index resides below the equilibrium line but the trend is toward the equilibrium line. As it approaches equilibrium increasing opportunity will be evident for land purchases and housing construction.
• This Composite list implies that current housing prices must fall by a total of 13.8% from 4th quarter 2007 net price levels in order to fully reach equilibrium. This is a higher level of drop than our previous method of forecasting but this composite index-based estimated is considered much more reliable than other measures.
• Composite list leads merchandise changes by 12 to 18 months. For example the Composite Index in July 2006 effectively describes market conditions from the mid to latter Year 2007. It should be noted that the Composite Index reached its lowest point during July 2006 and not surprisingly we are now feeling the ‘pit’ of the merchandise. It should also be noted that once equilibrium is reached (projected to occur during 3rd/4th quarter 2008) equilibrium may not actually be entangle until late 2009 or early 2010.
• Composite list fell below the equilibrium line in 2nd accommodate 2004 then approached equilibrium during the latter move of 2004 then began to turn steeply downward beginning in January 2005. Had builders and financial institutions heeded the index many of the challenges associated with the current market disruption could have been avoided as arrive positions should have been sold during Year 2005 (instead of purchased at top dollar) and determine appreciation should have been avoided in request to compound absorption levels before the disruption began.
• Reaching this supportable pricing structure via concession activity is considered ineffective and reduces consumer confidence. The market will eventually be forced down to the supportable medianvalue via actual determine cuts as opposed to concessions.
• During Year 2008 to 2009 relief from the current merchandise situation ordain act place and a move toward stabilization will create. This stabilization ordain be due to the lower pricing structure that will be available to consumers (as prices continue to go during the balance of Year 2007 and 2008) and due to the anticipated reductions in inventory as an abundance of builders displace out ‘fire sales’ and decelerate construction of new housing.
Oh I almost forgot so now Etrade sold their asset in a fire sale to Citadel and Lennar to Morgan Stanley the equilibrium has been set or (market value). All those bank that wrote drink their mogage approve secrurity be to write them down some more because before they only wrote down about 12 %. Now the market or equilibrium has been set they be to write down another 60% or at market value
So the discussion now turns to how far will the value of homes in orange county fall…………
…… they will fall to about 2001 prices. Price increases from 1998 to 2001 were justified because of the restructuring of the capital gains tax. All determine increases from 2001 to 2006 were because of the speculative real estate breathe driven by readily available credit. The credit is now gone and will not go.
……. If you want to find out the per cent decrease for the neighborhood you be in…… go look at zillow and find a few transactions from that time period.
I sold my extra real estate in 2004 and felt stupid at the end of 2005 when I saw the buyers turn them for an additional $100k.
I conclude better now seeing the current owners (also flippers it seems to me - they have been trying to sell since a month after they bought) stuck now trying to sell at my 2004 price and still not selling.
There is only one Truthiness sorry. There ordain be no equilibrium because adequate financing still exists. Interesting that the supposed point of equilibrium is a mere 13% decline this is what you all shorted your house for? How much did it cost you in transaction and moving expenses to bunco your house? Let me know when something meaningful happens this sure as hell isn’t it.
I challenge you on this Nanowest. Give me your opinion of what is available and I ordain prove you right or wrong. furnish me 3 specific scenarios please. Do you have the guts or are you just a big mouth with nothing to approve it up? I will devote 1 hour to this today just give me the word. I double-dare you.
And Nanowest you surely do have a lot of nerve pretending to be an expert when I revealed you as a fraud. You don’t have the most basic aim of understanding of statistics or finance. You are nothing but a big gaping hit where a brain should be.
Put a sock in it Truthi you proved nothing except everyday publicly humiliating yourself here - proving that you are our breach ball. Anyway. Cal and OC and LA and SD are all over priced… go figure and they are going to slide or crash depending on the economy - bailout will not save anything especially in the OC.
I find interesting that this is a tweener forecast. Most of the forecasts for the turnaround point seem to be ordain and gloom (10 years) or rosy (now).
What I really desire about the report is that it suggests only price cuts not concessions will change the merchandise. Whether it is pychological or economical buyers care more about price than anything else. This is a communicate to resale sellers offering trips furniture cars or even carpet and create allowances. If you’re fully marketing your home and you’re not getting an furnish change your price.
Truthiness - What are you saying here? There will be no equilibrium because adequate financing comfort exists. Your not making any sense. Are these your last few ramblings before you lapse into unconsciousness.
Here is a quick look at the kinds of loans Credit Suisse is offering (this is easily confirmed on their website):
15yr. 20yr. 30yr. 40/30yr Fixed; 5/25. 7/23. ARMsLoan Amounts up to $2,500,000I/O Loans AvailableCo-Op Loans AvailableMax DTI is 50%Full/Alt and NIV Doc Types Available90% LTVs to $650,0002nd Homes Available to 90% LTVC/O Refi Available up to 90% LTV660 Minimum FICONIVs Available up to 90% LTVInvestors now available
I am fairly ignorant of the mortgage world so I don’t undergo any create of anything. But. I seem to remember reading a owe brokers blog the other day and they seemed to be complete agreement that their biggest challenge was getting their clients a loan because the availability of credit had dried up.
Awgee you need to expand your sources of information beyond Lending Maestro and blogs. Lending Maestro works for a single bank. Did the mortgage negociate communicate you read say it was hard or impossible? And what scenarios are they speaking of? Nanowest’s claims are completely false and I am willing to prove it (again).
when the reos hit the merchandise at 30 to 40% reject the new homes will also reallign then the resellers ordain also adapt it is only an matter of time.
That is correct awgee there is a definite problem with trying to get the people who would desire to get a house into a accommodate. There is one place that there is no problem and that is in Roc Ville over in Truthi county. However all the houses are made out of spice bread and the brides are made out of gum drops with kool aide rivers…other than there yes there is big problems with financing and who is going to answer now.
Truthi-Those do be like great deals. 50% DTI write me up! I don’t need to pay my car insurance or save anything for retirement (my home will pay for my retirement right?).
You never did get back to me on my hypothetical or what the characteristics of a first measure buyer are.
•100% Financing up to $750K•Income Stated•Assets Stated•Adjustable or Fixed Rates Available•give Amounts Up To $1.5 Million•Interest Only Payment Option•Aggressive Rates & Pricing
Truthiness sounds desire he’s starting to crack. Uh. I mean he’s doing book.
Uh authorise truthi whatever you say. Sure everything is roses. Or everthing is okay or everything isn’t that bad or whatever you want us to believe - you’re alter. It’s all gonna stabalize and turn out well.
(just smile everyone - don’t mention anything negative about the RE market in OC - remember it’s all good)
100% Financing:beat Doc or 12 Months Bank Statements620 Score to $650k660 advance to $750kOwner OccupiedPurchase. evaluate & call. Cash-Out
95% Financing:Stated Income / Stated Assets - 680 advance to $417kStated Income / Verified Assets - 680 advance to $750kOwner OccupiedPurchase or Rate & call
It’s kind of like all of the buyers were on drugs and now they have entered rehab. Once there they got their calculators approve and figured out that prices won’t go to the sky and they weren’t going to make any money on owning a home during the short teaser period that the loans were offering they got religion. The lenders are like the drug dealers wanting to experience where all there customers went. Truthi go peddle your drugs elsewhere because no one is going for 50% debt ratios or these current RE prices. The ride down is just starting.
First the argument was “resets”. Now that a solution is coming the argument is “no loans”. Now that I PROVED there are what is the next argument? You all are very slippery it’s hard to know where you’ll take things next.
Orange Countians’ creditworthiness seems to be in good shape as the holiday shopping season starts.
Experian’s latest reading on the county’s average “Plus” score the Costa Mesa-based company’s branded credit score was 702 for October. That’s 10 points better than the national average. Those are the same scores as six months ago.
Experian’s report does show the add up O. C non-mortgage debts at $24,298 up 7.4 percent since April. U. S debts grew just 4.9 percent. It’s always a create verbally toss if borrowing increases show a confident consumer or one borrowing to meet urgent financial needs.
And one worry spot to watch: The add up number of O. C late payments was 0.76 a 10 percent jump from April. U. S late payments rose 6.2 percent in the same period.
One should not be so naive and accept these ads. There’s A LOT of fine create to go along with it. This is partly the reason why there are so many troubled homeowners. They see the 100% financing or 95% financing with Stated Income/Assets and say sign me up.
And just because they have advertisements doesn’t mean they’re making many of those types of loans.
We’ll give you the point that the owe merchandise comfort exists in a much more scaled approve way than it was. Underwriting guidelines on all of these products are much more stringent. My point is that nobody cares. You can offer all of the exotic product you want. But if prices are dropping like a lead charge who cares?
Ok we have “resets”. “no loans”. “600 scores” and “advertisements” and that’s just for starters.
(The guidelines were from those firms’ wholesale websites (non protected). The are real wholesale firms don’t employ false advertising because brokers won’t tolerate it.
So truthi. I guess things are far worse than I thought. You prove that there is readily available credit and that anyone that wants to acquire can go down to the tip and get a give………. still sales volumes are at historic lows.
I anticipate the only explanation for the fact that home sales volumes are way below historic averages is that the prices are too high. My calculate is that the prices will fall to 2001 levels…. just a change posture.
A posting of a program available does not mean the buyer/borrower can actually close.
Regulators bespeak higher loan loss reserves for this type of paper so the loans are made extremely sparingly.
I undergo a number of builder exec (veep level) mtg negociate and mtg banker friends who are having a terrible time getting folks to close on these programs. The number is just north of a 50% close rate — based on underwriting not borrower cold feet.
You need to challenge your assumption that the money is flowing desire it used to. Web postings of available programs do not equate to getting the deal done!
Welcome Graphprick. Aren’t there any foreclosure sales at the courthouse for you to entertain yourself with? What kind of moron goes to a foreclosure sale with no check and no intention of buying anyway? You pay all day on two hour conference calls and reading mortage backed security reports. How exactly do you make money?
All the responses to the availability of funds are exactly right on…they advertize the availability but it doesn’t necessarily convey that you will qualify for them.
I had heard that sometimes populate will praise a sale (but conveniently run out of that particular product) to get you in the door with the idea that they will entice you with another product but at much less favoriable rates. But the lending institutions are much to upstanding for such underhanded tricks aren’t they?
Although this is a owe mention it is comfort relevant here:Truthi- I highly disbelieve that there are many of those loans moving out of Millenium or PRMG unless the credit is approximately 50-80 fico points above your indicators. Many companies have gone belli up or barely hanging on due to these particular type of loans… becuase by and large the secondary market is comfort NOT picking them up. If PRMG is comfort honestly doing stated 100% loans… then I wonder how long they will continue to be in business…PLUS according to 2 different escrow offices for every 2 files(refi or domiciliate purchases) that start the escrow process… only 1 comes out to record as a completed transaction. I am only speaking from experiences I experience of and heard of brokers & lenders start off well and mean say they can get a loan for some one 660 fico 100% but it never gets final approval. Good luck trying to get that to do through!
Regulators demand higher loan loss reserves for this type of paper so the loans are made extremely sparingly.
I have a be of builder exec (veep aim) mtg broker and mtg banker friends who are having a terrible time getting folks to change state on these programs. The number is just north of a 50% change state evaluate — based on underwriting not borrower cold feet.
You be to challenge your assumption that the money is flowing desire it used to. Web postings of available programs do not equate to getting the broach done!”
Actually. I’d be interested in a response from Truthiness too. Truthiness you cited that these exotic loans still exist. But are they being used successfully or frequently as before to close deals?
As a person who is trying to remove a certain level of knowledge out of this commentary this Truthi engrave gets tiresome very quickly.
Truthi why do you lash out the way you do? What shred of respect do you expect when you post 50 times (with half of those being name calling and berating others?)? Why can’t you just post a clean concise response? Are you still in junior high?
So I’ll ask as well. If product is available and there is no credit crunch like you are so adamant about why are houses not selling?
Why do you accept your so-called “experts” when they have been wrong in their predictions up to this point? Since the bears on this blog have been right about this downturn so far wouldn’t you call them the true “experts”? What are your feelings on people who took your advice to buy in the past 2 years and will lose a significant be of money if they try to change now? Are you in this same situation?
You all fail to grasp my point. The inform isn’t that 100% stated can be pushed through the inform is that there is availability in the chasm that exists between standards from 40 years ago and the let go lending of the recent past. Anyone who will not acknowledge that is either misinformed or dishonest or both.
The #1 probelm with refinances is this: last year when you took a 80% cash out finance and lets say now you just want to do a evaluate and call to get out of that ARM max LTV is most likely 90% but when that appraisal comes in you’re probably at 95%…. no can do. Banks are extrememly picky about appraised values right now comps are slim. The #1 problem with purchases is nobody wants to buy right now because they don’t want to purchase in a declining merchandise.
“Truthiness Says:December 4th. 2007 at 10:21 amYou all fail to grasp my inform. The inform isn’t that 100% stated can be pushed through the point is that there is availability in the chasm that exists between standards from 40 years ago and the let go lending of the recent past. Anyone who will not acknowledge that is either misinformed or dishonest or both.”
No. I did not fail to hold your inform. In fact I tended to agree that exotic loans still existed (loan sharks have existed since the begin of time). However. I doubt the effectiveness of those programs to hold up today’s market as one of your statements hinted:
Thats fine and dandy…there will always be banks and lenders to lend money. The problem is most cannot show create that they can afford a home. If you go stated the max LTV is like 70% and who the heck has 30% down?? Not many. So stop fighting about who has what program. Yes there out there and no most cant get them…period!
You can always cast a dark cloud over anything but the reality is that many people can answer and as soon as buyers perceive value they ordain buy. Apparently many are statrting to see value because the credit unions volumn has significantly increased recently.
Truthi the problem is not loans it’s what populate will answer for. If you go get the 95% status income you must still come up with $30,000 to buy a “cheap” domiciliate in OC. Home many first time buyers have that? I experience I don’t and it would take me years to save that much with contract the cost it is and other bills and car payments that people have. Also you must undergo a 680 fico which is maybe 30% of people. You also would probably need 2 high income people to alter the stated income loan believable. I couldn’t qualify for any give by myself that I could drop unless it’s on a property worth well under $200k. If I get a liar loan stated income and contract out the rooms it’s possible but who wants to take a risk of getting foreclosed on with values crashing? Buyers be a home they can afford on their own without roommates and without liar loans. Those loans hugely contributed to the foreclosures of today and the bubble pricing that caused them.
Dear Mr. Lansner: please check the number of comments available to any given poster: you have a hideous troll who has spammed this blog incessantly thereby diminishing the value of the mention section to less than adjust. Go approve to St. George. Truthy. You ain’t welcome here no more.
I undergo 30% down and great credit but I will NOT buy a 3 bed 2 clean 1400 sqft home for $550K. That is the problem. If that house was $375-$410K maybe but its back to the principal. If you buy for $600K you owe $600K and no one especially first time home buyers be that kind of debt for a stucco box!
bequeath…what one person can afford is not what the majority can drop so stop saying that most can qualify for a loan because they move!
Truthiness Says:December 4th. 2007 at 10:21 amYou all disappoint to grasp my point. The inform isn’t that 100% stated can be pushed through the point is that there is availability in the chasm that exists between standards from 40 years ago and the loose lending of the recent past. Anyone who will not acknowledge that is either misinformed or dishonest or both.
Umm. so if there is exactly 1 loan available at these wonderful suicide give terms then Truthi’s point is valid????
The assay that these loans carry now is so high that few will qualify. Certainly the level of foreclosures is keeping many from buying and attempting to get an exotic loan due to economic uncertainty. It just isnt realistic or logical for people to do so.
Truthi everyone here has challenged you. You can spout all the info from your spam email you be. I have a 100 gift card to beat Buy waiting for me to pick up a free cell telecommunicate some guy in Africa wants me to help him with his lotto winnings and there are hot chicks in my area just begging to meet me.
Why do you be people to go try and get qualified for these loans? We are in this eat because of shady lenders that offered this crap to begin with. We need a correction to fix this and alter prices. Giving borrowers easier loan terms does not convey that in 3 years they will be able to act making the payment…hence the situation we are in alter now.
Our economy needs to improve on all fronts so that borrowers conclude obtain in knowing they ordain undergo a job to pay for that car to get them to work let alone a owe to act a roof over their heads. With the declining dollar. I dont think it would be wise to buy right now anyway even if you can drop.
I couldn’t care less what people do. If they can afford something they will buy (which they are still actually doing). If they cannot afford it they will not. My only argument today was in proving Nanowest to be either confused or a liar. I accomplished that in spades. Do what you like. Wait if you like. Buy if you like. It makes no difference to me.
For those of you new to this blog. Truthy introduced himself by bragging about his boomer-buddies second homes in St. George. UT. In that regard. I picture Truthy leaning approve with St. George homies as follows:Truthy: Hey buddy go me a cigar. Fellow Boomer: Hell yeah. Truthy we is rich. Truthy: St. George sure is special — look around we ain’t got no Orientals nor illegals. Fellow Boomer: And don’t drop about polygamy oowiee! Now let’s go buy some OC real estate before it’s too late.
(having been to St. George. I can only surmise that Truthy’s racism comports with his upbringing and general braggadocio)
That’s funny shiny: you are the only racist here (except Patricio). You never did get the point about people in my age group. And Joe. I offered nothing but facts in this thread. How prey tell is that “denial”? Seems to me denial is changing the subject when one’s arguments are proved false as we undergo seen from your side today.
“15yr. 20yr. 30yr. 40/30yr Fixed; 5/25. 7/23. ARMsLoan Amounts up to $2,500,000I/O Loans AvailableCo-Op Loans AvailableMax DTI is 50%Full/Alt and NIV Doc Types Available90% LTVs to $650,0002nd Homes Available to 90% LTVC/O Refi Available up to 90% LTV660 Minimum FICONIVs Available up to 90% LTVInvestors now available”
2 Years ago these loans were available to anyone with a pulse. Today…they may still available… but the approval % is about 1/3 what it used to be. Loan terms are one thing…but you seem to be assuming that the approval terms are the same they were years ago. They are not.
It has been well publicized that Jumbos for instance undergo been much harder to get since August. The dramatic rise since August in $417K (exactly) conformling loans in OC is a enjoin reflection of this. How you can deny this is beyond reason. As I noted before this directly parallels the dramatic drop in median prices in CA from August till now (-$92K…OUCH That hurts)
From MarketWatch. “Housing will revive when prices go down to the point where demand rises enough to decrease the huge supply of unsold homes now overhanging the merchandise. That said this point is a desire way off. Right now there is at least a 10-month supply of unsold homes at current selling rates.”
“To whittle this supply to more normal levels demand has to go. That will happen when prices fall since right now housing prices are much too high relative to family incomes.”
“Today median home prices are 3.5 times the size of median annual family incomes. This may be down from the recent arrive at of 4.2 times incomes reached last year but it’s way above the 2.8 times that home prices averaged during 1984-2000 when lots of homes were bought sold and built.”
“And if you think 2.8 is low check out the early 1970s. That was when home prices were only 2.3 times median family incomes and housing was selling desire gangbusters.” “To equal the affordability of the early 1970s prices would have to go a whopping 38%.”
“Sellers could always direct the line and act for family incomes to go. But this clearly won’t happen overnight - and besides it’s a buyer’s market and no one wants to buy today knowing that prices might well be lower tomorrow.”
“After all when it comes to housing prices what matters most is not the cost of construction nor what surrounding homes might be selling for. Simply put it’s affordability. And until they are more affordable houses won’t sell.”
Here is the price reductions(from ziprealty) from a place in Irvine on scholarship drive. It’s been on the market for 148 days and is still on the merchandise.
Price Reduced: 08/09/07 — $695,000 to $685,000Price Reduced: 08/30/07 — $685,000 to $679,000Price Reduced: 09/14/07 — $679,000 to $629,000Price Reduced: 10/02/07 — $629,000 to $599,000determine Reduced: 10/30/07 — $599,000 to $574,999Price Reduced: 11/28/07 — $574,999 to $520,000
You see the determine is now drink 25% and no takers. If they had priced the place at $520,000 148 days ago it might have sold. Now the owner can think about selling it for about $380,000.
One of the reasons I conceal here rather than post a lot is because populate are prone to personal attacks. But I think your insights have been helpful and a lot of what you say I am thinking so I gesticulate you for that.
That being said. I don’t agree that stability ordain take direct in late 2008/early 2009. Its simply too early for that. And if it does then I’m packing my bags. I like OC but if I cannot drop a home. I’ll act somewhere that I can.
Over on the Irvine Housing communicate there are lots of examples of homes that are on the market at steep discounts from prices in 2006.
As for you disproving my theories. I only undergo one theory. My theory is that prices got out of control in Orange County from 2001 through 2006. Now that there is a correction occurring my theory is that sales volume will choose up to historic averages when prices have fallen 50 % from the 2006 prices. My theory is that it will act about 5 years before we will see the bottom in OC home prices.
It ordain be very difficult for you to disprove my theory unless you have a time machine.
Principal and Interest (30 Year fixed at 5.9%) = $2,473.38Taxes (don’t experience rate using 1%) = $433.00HOA = $345.00Total payment = $3,251.38Tax benefit (approximately) = -$800.00Lost interest = $430.00Overall cost = $2,881.38
Amidst a massive crisis acknoledged by the Federal Reserve (to the point of begging Congress for this stupid bailout stand still to go through). Truthi thinks there is an abundance of exotic lending still taking place that will perpetuate this ridiculousness.
It is BAFFLING that you be bullish about this merchandise considering the mountain of obviousness to the contrary.
I agree with the earlier post: It will be a great day when you wither your check name into oblivion and I am frankly amazed you haven’t already.
Let’s face it we are experiencing an event that has never been experienced before with the Exception of the Great Depression-and that was a completely different paradym.
Only time will tell it’s obvious from what is going on that this ordain not settle out until sometime in 08 or 09.
We can all belie to be Monday Morning Quarterbacks but the dialog is certainly interesting. Let’s just hope we find a happy medium without too many populate crashing and burning.
You can say what you want to say but there are alot of people in trouble and hurting right now-many whom bare move of the responsibility. While others were merely relying on their Realtor. Lender or Broker for advice.
We could all rant on for hours on this with our own opinions;however,none of us Control Market Forces.
And another thing. You are the one always talking up all of the give product availability and how great it is for financing but when you come with this example its 20 % down (105K!) and conventional conforming financing. What gives? Do up some exotic stuff and lets see about how the wizard of domiciliate loans can alter this purchase really stink.
“Only measure will tell it’s obvious from what is going on that this ordain not lay out until sometime in 08 or 09.”
37 years in the business and you think this ordain lay in 12-18 months here in OC? I am looking to buy what do you accept the median ordain be at that time? Does settle convey we go back to 2005/2006 prices?
Good calculation…. once you calculate in the fact that real estate is a depreciating asset the cost of ownership will increase even more………
……I think most populate ordain wait until the place is selling at about $200 per square foot and then buy it……………… just a hunch
I know I said I wouldn’t reply to you (due to your incessant rudeness) eat it but you just won’t stop so here goes. First. I only see one property so I’m not sure what you convey (unless it’s the financing options). back up there is no square footage listed on the 2/2 Rancho Santa Margarita condo. I will assume that it is in the 1,000 form pay range so the determine they are asking I estimate at $349 to $399 per square pay. I am not sure what you are expecting me to say. I would create by mental act that it comes close to penciling out on a contract versus own basis even more so than the Irvine example above which is to be expected as Rancho Santa Margarita is not on the same level as Irvine.
“once you factor in the fact that real estate is a depreciating asset the be of ownership will increase change surface more”
Nanowest do you understand the concept of a circular argument? I honestly think you may not jusk like all the other simple concepts you are also unfamiliar with. A circular argument “makes a conclusion based on material that has already been assumed in the argument”. Your argument that prices will go down below rental equivalent because prices will go down fits this desription to a t. Your argument contains flawed logic. I guess working with nanotechnology has blinded you to common sense.
“I think most people will wait until the place is selling at about $200 per square foot and then buy it”
By this reasoning (a reduction of 52%) you seem to be banking on the notion that The Irvine Company will price its own comparable unit down to $1,378 from $2,650. You are some kind of idiot if you think that’s in the cards. Seriously the more you create verbally the less I think of you. You alter my case stronger with each affix.
Even Rich Toscano the highly regarded guru of the Pigginton Blog said yesterday that last year when he predicted the study housing correction the one thing that he knew could thwart the major collapse would be govt intervention. He went on to say that what administration and the fed are planning to do will diffinitely slow if not prevent a study housing price decline.
I totally agree usedtoreadtheregister. They will be the measure to experience when this all comes down. bequeath the self-assured “the fed won’t cut rates”? They are truly clueless. It’s going to be a emit watching them learn their lessons. Such braggarts.
And Nanowest: if that unit pencils out to be equivalent to the rental at $1,378 then a 3/2 townhome in the heart of Orange County which sits on the border of Newport land will be easily affordable to someone making around $45,000-$48,000 per year. This is your expectation?
Did I tell you that I think rentals will go drink over the next 5 years too…………… they are in San Diego. I watched rentals drop by 50% in silicon valley at the end of the dot com crash. And so now you will start with rentals never go down prove it. I can’t be it. My hunch is that a lot of the laid of mortgage workers that were renting ordain leave the area freeing up a lot of rental inventory. Also. I see lots of apartments being built in the area.
I am working but I ordain say one more of your scenarios. The Laguna Hills condo is pushing the bounds of the rent versus own scenario due to the fact it is a one bedroom. We are speaking of the floor level of housing here. I calculate the after-tax cost of owning it to be in the neighborhood of $1,350 per month. I ordain leave it up to you to express me what it could rent for. I doubt much less.
Your ability to just coat over the facts and just be so numb to the numbers is amazing and frightening at the same time Roc. You take the basic English in lie of you out of context and then expect people to listen to your act on a complex issue? This is like talking to the guy under the bridge who is giving a financial advice using a dead squirrel as a pointer.
I bring home the bacon in an office by SNA and undergo a window that looks out over the parking lot. There is(was) an office here that I could see every day. I am not sure the exact nature of the business but I evaluate it was owe related(owe was in the companies name). Every day a clump of 20-30 year olds would show up in expensive cars and go inside this office. They all had slicked back hair and expensive sunglasses. Their leader drove a MB 600 and had this blond woman with big breasts at his side all the time. It did displease me that these office workers used to smoke outside all the time.
Well anticipate what they are all gone now……the lights never go on in the office……. just a few more people that won’t be able to contract apartments in orange county.
First the after-tax cost of owning a $292,000 property is nowhere change state to $1,300 per month or whatever you claim it is.
Second you cavalierly disregard the down payment issue without ever addressing the data that CLEARLY shows that median first-time-buyer drink payments are in the $10,000 range (no not 10% not $100,000 but $10,000).
You also ignore the data that shows CLEARLY that first-time buyers are (were) stretching to an extent that has no historical precedent with DTI ratios above 50%.
I would point you to the data but you and I both experience where it is (hint it’s from the CAR).
You are a troll a historical revisionist and an awful person for trying to persuade people to buy in the real estate environment TODAY.
I have nothing more to say to you but your arrogance hatred and general idiocy are hard to ignore.
Kevin Andrade senior managing director for Trammel Crow Residential on the apartment market: While apartment vacancies are extremely low in Orange County at 4.3% it’s expected to rise to near or just above 5% next year because of a lack of job growth here. It should be around 5.1% by the end of 2008. Although a preserve $364,000 was paid per unit for the Meridian Town and Country Apartments in Orange last summer prices for apartment buildings are holding steady or coming drink. “(It’s) comfort a healthy market just not as robust as it has been,” he said.
So you evaluate that individuals should pay $500,000 for apartment properties(oops. Irvine condos) that companies ordain only pay $364,000 for. These people are saying that $364,000 is too much to pay at this inform…………
acquire determine = $292,000.00Loan amount = $233,600.00Principal & interest (30 yr fixed at 5.9%) = $1,385.57Taxes = $243.33HOA (est) = $200.00be payment before tax benefit = $1,828.90Tax benefit (est) = $-456.00Lost interest on = $243.33Net be to own (counting lost int) = $1,616.23Net be to own (outright) = $1,372.90
Loudmouth. I never said volume of first time homebuyers would remain the same. I know you can’t imagine that someone could pull together $58,400 but people do it every day.
Nanowest those units are not comparable to $500,000 townhomes. Also. 5% vacancy is considered pratically full occupancy. The story supports my case more than it supports yours. You have grasped today like never before. You shouldn’t drink and post.
I can’t accept I’ve been drawn into this moronic debate with you. Again you’ve shown your short-sightedness and faith-based calculating abilities. You’re only presenting a “best-case” scenario that includes some crucial ‘bent facts’.
1. You’re assuming a down payment be that does not match with historical data.2. HOA is not tax deductible.2. You’re assuming an optimistically low mortgage evaluate.3. You did not be for the standard deduction - you can’t just deduct the entire amount of interest only that portion greater than the standard deduction.4. You included principle in your tax benefit “calculations”
Truthi plenty of people have $58k. I have no problem considering that scenario. I just don’t think it has anything to do with your pathetic example.
The universe of people willing to consider a $292,000 condo does not intercept in any way with people who have managed to save over $50,000.
Besides my point was not about what people are capable of but what people DO. CAR records what people DO not what they MIGHT DO.
(I don’t compassionate what people did last year plenty of people can scrape together $50,000. Why are you considering buying if you can’t?)
3. You did not account for the standard deduction - you can’t just deduct the entire amount of interest only that portion greater than the standard deduction.
(Wow that changes everything except is doesn’t since the state deduction can now be taken)
1. You’re assuming a drink payment amount that does not match with historical data.
(I don’t care what people did last year plenty of populate can rub together $50,000. Why are you considering buying if you can’t?)
You just made the Bears point. Most populate dont have such savings and cant buy and therefore shouldnt at those prices.
If thruthi is not ashamed to death right now with these weak pathetic arguements,another year worth or foreclosures. BK’s and giant determine drops won’t make any difference in it’s object. bequeath Baghdad Bob? Now we undergo OC Truthi. Same mentality just hiding behind a computer screen.
“….. The have sale will “provide the affiliate with additional capital to conservatively bring home the bacon increased assay in the housing and credit markets help meet its mission of providing affordability liquidity and stability and free up capital to pursue emerging growth opportunities,” the company said.
“Fannie Mae has a responsibility to serve the mortgage market in good times and times like these,” said Daniel H. Mudd the chief executive of Fannie.
The affiliate said it believed market conditions undergo improved significantly for equity sales. “Several large transactions with relatively attractive terms have been completed since we issued our $500 million of preferred have in November,” said David Benson. Fannie Mae’s treasurer. “We believe we can act quickly with a sizable offering at this time.”
I like how the bulls take every bit of positive corporate spin as “The Truth” and factual accounts of markets and consumer behavior as somehow not relevant.
I’m done with this topic. You keep your fantasies and I’ll keep my facts.
I find it funny that a drink of $50K-$100K is considered to be so easy to save up. Some populate have it most people DON’T especially first time buyers! That isn’t something you just gloss over and express people to get over it.
Hell my parents don’t change surface that have kind of cash unless they raid their 401K’s and home equity. But most first time buyers don’t have those go backs for a reasonable drink.
Truthi you’re delirious if you think first timers have that kind of money and desire others have said it they did undergo $100K there sure as hell wouldn’t be buying some rinky dink converted apartment that’s for damn sure!
There are many fantastic places you can contract for 1,400 a month that are a lot larger than the 3 car garage sized condo that you posted. Also the cost would be much closer to 2,000 a month being realistic anyways.
I dont think it is snobber by any means. If you saved up 60K would you yourself truthi expect more than purchasing a 700 sq ft condo conversion?
Those places are intended for first time buyers or those on smaller/fixed incomes. That price is fairly reasonable for someone who makes 80K a year or more but not for many under that salary. That is of course when you are realistic and calculate the cost of everything else in life and you are not putting more than 50% of your take domiciliate pay to your housing.
Heres the broach. I will except your 20% down scenerio when you be to me that the majority of people have that say more than 60K in the bank.
Since I should you an article that stated the savings rate in this country is slightly above negative and the add up credit debt is over 8K. show me that what you state is fact.
eprobert. 1700 populate bought homes from all different price ranges last month. The chances are pretty good that buyers did in fact put down $50K on a $300K Condo. You guys act like the merchandise died. 1700 buyers is an awful lot of clueless “injure catchers”
Of course you’re happily married! If I was married to a nut job without the ability to cerebrate. I would be her to be in the other room posting on blogs 24 hours a day too!! He must have a ton of free time on his hands. I’m sure he’s relieved because with the amount you type. I can just imagine how much you can talk. That’s scary.
Truthi said. “You pay all day on two hour conference calls and reading mortgage backed security reports. How exactly do you make money?
Your first post yesterday at 7:30 AM and still at it past 8 PM; same thing everyday. What do you do to make money? I’m sure the NAR must be paying you well to act this up like you do. I hope come up enough to pay for your psychology bills. Typing in your sleep! It’s a Nightmare! Nope!!!
If you would just stop who would these people undergo to lay out with? By trying (very poorly) to make your points you are destroying your own cause by fueling the fire.
shockg: “1700 populate bought homes from all different price ranges measure month” The current buyer volume is not even close enough to sustain current home values. There is always going to be those folks for which buying just makes better comprehend simply because they acquire alot of money and they are currently renting. There is always the move-up buyer that planned accordingly or those that have the resources to be able to act wherever they want to. The cumulative be is evidently low. As for how much these buyers put drink recently your mention is pure speculation. The downpayment data is available somewhere its just not made itself known on the blog yet. I highly doubt it was 20% across the board.
Among the many posts that Truthi has conveniently chosen to ignore was one I threw approve at her happy optimism a month or so back.
I stated then and still feel the same — if I were offered a ZERO arouse loan on a typical OC domiciliate today I would have to pass.
A give has to be repaid and I undergo no desire to repay tomorrow for an overpriced depreciating home that ordain sell for less in the future.
Truthi you told us before about your buying an $800,000 home new last year. So sorry for you.
gratify ease up and stop the BS own/rent comparos based on conceive of situations and fantasy numbers and gratify please stop the gratuitous insults you constantly throw at everyone but your alter-ego postings.
I was off this site for a bit and am feeling exhausted by the effort to find any worthwhile info hidden and overwhelmed by your endless insipid posting and senseless blathering.
You really do need to get a life outside of here and let this communicate return to a place where posters can exchange ideas and information.
My guess? Most come here in arouse of you not because of you. If we had a need for Pollyanna BS we could walk into any C-21 office and sight your ilk desperate to talk with anyone — which might just inform your presence here.
“Please ease up and forbid the BS own/rent comparos based on fantasy situations and fantasy numbers and please please forbid the gratuitous insults you constantly throw at everyone but your alter-ego postings.”
“I was off this site for a bit and am feeling exhausted by the effort to sight any worthwhile info hidden and overwhelmed by your endless insipid posting and senseless blathering.”
Pot meet kettle. You are just another person who provides nothing of substance only complaints. You caanot defeat my arguments as they are very well supported by facts. Try again.
accept Graphprick. Aren’t there any foreclosure sales at the courthouse for you to entertain yourself with? What kind of moron goes to a foreclosure sale with no check and no intention of buying anyway? You spend all day on two hour conference calls and reading mortage backed security reports. How exactly do you make money?
Are you ok? I didn’t post on this thread. Unlike you. I affix under the same name every time. Go ahead ask Jon if I am lying. For a back up there. I thought you had a comprehend of humor but instead you label me names. Really classy. Does it make you feel good?
How do you know. I don’t have a check (actually checks because you need to have more than your minimum if you plan to bid up) when I go to the auction? Maybe. I ordain buy when I sight a deal? Too bad they are few and far between. 2 of the 37 today actually sold the other 35 went back to the tip. That means even the pros are not buying the overpriced homes at the sell. There are several homes with a minimum bid of $100k-$200k less than what the first lien is. Seconds are being wiped out and homes are going approve to the bank for 20%-30% less that what the first lien is. How is this a good write?
Maybe if you construe the reports on mortgage backed securities you would have a reasonable comprehend of reality. Too bad you don’t because you and Ben Stein undergo no clue how bad it really is and how bad it is about to get. “The roots of education are change taste but the fruit is sweet.”
Why are you so obsessed with what I do to make money? Do you get paid on a per post basis? I hope you do because you have been non-stop from 7am to past 10pm. That… is freakin scary. If your job isn’t posting here then you should spend your time more wisely and make more money for yourself. I ordain tell you how I made some money today. I bought puts (you experience a bet that the have will go down) on Lennar. I made a little 80%+ profit today on that bet. I love it when there are suckers who buy into a bunco covering rally. So… In a weird way. I guess I owe you a thank you. I hope you got in at the $14 range if not then you exceed get out.
Truthi: I just have to weigh in on your side with all of this unfriendly piling on. It seems anyone who isn’t essentially hoping for another Great Depression are affect to bemock here. populate who resort to insults and slurs and hyper-emotional rants during downturns almost always are proved wrong in the end. Real estate isn’t one market but thousands of little markets. Some markets probably will drop 50% or more like arrive on the outskirts or ill conceived condo markets in Florida that were never justified to begin with but quality “A” locations will hold up better than the rest. I’m move of a large communicate in Phoenix with a mega-builder that’s fix land and they’re comfort writing huge checks to complete it because it’s a top quality development. I also undergo a give out on some residential land in the Inland Empire (yes Inland Empire where everyone is talking gloom and doom) and the property was just re-appraised for higher than it was two years ago and is being refinanced as we speak. And I’m involved with a couple of good deals in Chicago area that’s cash flowing solidly with new quality tenants signing long-term leases. The northwest is doing come up and Utah and Texas and Memphis and North Carolina and Dubai and Puerto Rico. Listen friends if you just desire to comprehend yourself spew then I anticipate go ahead and keep slinging your mud at anyone who doesn’t agree with you. But if you really want to hit the books how to alter good investments and understand how to alter in and out of market cycles then I suggest you be open to the possibility that you have much to learn and develop into a adjust professional. Yes we’re in a downturn but the cost of building materials are so far and above what they were a few years ago because of demand from China etc. and the cost of entitlements etc. that things can only fall so far. Also with the dollar falling it’s making our real estate cheap for foreign investors which also at some inform brings in new buyers and stabilizes things. I just read a story about Canadians buying homes in Palm Springs for this cerebrate. I’ve said it before here and I’ll say it again…when this is all over the plain vanilla homes will undergo dropped from the peak 20%-30% quality homes 10%-20% beach lie not much at all which is no different from the last downturns I’ve seen in my nearly 30 professional years. During the S&L crisis many populate talked just like above and it worked itself out over 3-4 years. That’s all for now but before I close can I make one communicate. Can we have a discussion desire mature adults or is this truly just a Jim Rome trash talking situation?
drew,i appreciate the contribution you make here you seem desire a smart person to me yes the personal attacks on truthi is getting ugly however some investors out there are driving around looking for bargain prices i know this because i have a friend who is doing this for a company based in los angeles.
Drew thank you very much. I appreciate your comments. Funny you mentioned Dubai. I am off to there very soon. I have some tremendous opportunites in front of me right now. Every Orange County (and beyond) company should go global post haste. In my case it is not nearly as difficult as I imagined (although it certainly could be for many). I am lucky in that my business model requires very little change to be successful there. Again thank you for your kind words.
I dont think that most populate here be with you. I believe that the market is down approximately 10-12% from the peak price in 2006. So I think another 10-20% depending on the area is a reasonable expectation. Also the time line of 3-4 years is probably reasonable as come up. It just seems as though there are some that think the bottom will hit in the next six months and than all ordain be well.
I dont think anyone wants to see this huge crash and wish for people to be selling apples and pencils on the street. I do think though that most people understand the problems we have with credit and overspending in this country. That it is important for housing (both owned and rented) costs to come more in line with incomes for the betterment of society as a whole.
Regardless of the financial merchandise and investing or anything else. We have to look for the future of where we want out country to be. The middle categorise is getting squeezed harder and harder every year. Only a small few get squeezed up into the upper class. While the majority are getting jammed into the furnish tier. construe any article about debt and savings rates and you will see the sad truth.
My desire is of cover to buy something I can afford and maintain without it taking up such a large part of my salary that I am fretting over the loan month after month. So a decline in prices ordain benefit me but more so it ordain benefit people desire me which is a good thing.
Is real estate still slipping? Yes in some areas. Will it continue? Probably for a while. Will it go up again? You bet your sweet @??! I have been selling real estate for 29 years in Orange County and there is one thing I can tell you for sure! Not only will the merchandise go back but it ordain be bigger and better than the 2004/2005 merchandise. When will this happen? I can not tell you that but it will happen. As for buying now interest rates are good and sellers are easy to negotiate with. If you are buying desire call now is a great time to buy. Can you predict the furnish? I can’t even with almost 30 years undergo. If you look at a interpret of the market and it is shaped like a horseshoe. (Sellers market to a buyers merchandise approve to a sellers merchandise.) Does it really matter what side of the graph you buy if you are buying long term? No it does not! One of my favorite quotes is what John Paul Getty said when asked how to get rich “Buy when the masses are selling and change when the masses are buying”. The masses are selling!
truthi - who spends every waking hour on this blog- becauseshe needs to try and reconfirm her belief that she didnt make a really stupid decision by buying a house measure year-is so brilliant that she can post on a communicate ad nauseum- butalso has the time to run an “export’ business in which she’llbe needing to go to “dubai”- now I know why you postedthe opening to the “twilight zone”– anyone that bekieves you belongs in the twilight zone phony baloney
Forex Groups - Tips on Trading
Related article:
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2007/12/04/are-calif-new-home-prices-138-too-high/
comments | Add comment | Report as Spam
|
